Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Game 4 Prediction - 10/10/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The Las Vegas Aces will visit the Phoenix Mercury in Game 4 of the WNBA Finals on Friday night. Las Vegas has a 3-0 series lead and will look to complete a four-game sweep with a win here against a desperate Phoenix team. Here, I break down this matchup and give you my Aces vs Mercury Game 4 prediction for what could be the final game of the 2025 WNBA season.
Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
Aces –2.5 | Aces –135 / Mercury +115 | 163.5 |
Player | Prop |
|---|---|
A’ja Wilson | Over 25.5 Points |
A’ja Wilson | Over 11.5 Rebounds |
DeWanna Bonner | Over 14.5 Points |
Alyssa Thomas | Over 9.5 Assists |
Score Projection: Las Vegas 82 – Phoenix 85
Win Probability: Las Vegas 40%, Phoenix 60%
The Aces have all of the momentum in this series heading into Game 4. They also have the best player on the planet in women's basketball right now, as A'ja Wilson is making a compelling case to be the GOAT once her career is done. But I think the Phoenix Mercury will find a way to grab a win in this series to avoid being swept. This series will go back to Las Vegas, where the Aces will likely finish the job in Game 5, as the Mercury will win as slight underdogs on Friday night.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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