Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury Game 4 Prediction - 9/28/2025
Updated June 8, 2026
The Phoenix Mercury will host Game 4 of their WNBA semifinal series against the Minnesota Lynx on Sunday. The stakes could not be higher, as Phoenix leads the series 2–1 and has a chance to punch its ticket to the WNBA Finals with a win at home. Minnesota will try to respond under pressure after two straight losses, with uncertainty surrounding the health of star forward Napheesa Collier. Here, I break down this matchup and bring you my Lynx vs Mercury Game 4 prediction.
Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
PHX -4 | MIN +154 / PHX -185 | 156 |
Past meetings: Minnesota won the regular-season series between these teams 3-1. In the playoff series so far, Phoenix leads their semifinal series 2–1. Minnesota still holds a 4-3 advantage in the head-to-head with Phoenix this year. But the Mercury are leading in the playoffs, where it counts.
ATS records: The Mercury are 2-1 against the spread in this series so far. The winner of each game has covered the spread, regardless of whether they were a favorite or underdog. This is the first game of this series where Phoenix is favored so far.
Player | Prop |
|---|---|
Alyssa Thomas (PHX) | Over 15.5 points |
Satou Sabally (PHX) | Over 16.5 points |
Kahleah Copper (PHX) | Over 15.5 points |
Kayla McBride (MIN) | Over 17.5 points |
Score Projection: Minnesota 77 – Phoenix 85
Win Probability: Minnesota 36%, Phoenix 64%
If Napheesa Collier is able to play and be effective for the Lynx, the above projections and probabilities will change dramatically. But if she's as hurt as she appeared to be when she left Game 3, a great season for the Lynx is likely to end on Sunday night. I'll lay the points with Phoenix for now, but I urge bettors to find out more on Collier's status before locking anything in here.
