Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction: Who Wins WNBA Finals Rematch to Start 2026?
Updated July 9, 2026
The WNBA's season-opening weekend rolls on with a high-profile Western Conference game as the Phoenix Mercury travel to Las Vegas for a Finals rematch against the Las Vegas Aces on Saturday afternoon. Las Vegas enters the season with championship expectations once again behind MVP A'ja Wilson, while Phoenix brings back a veteran-led roster led by Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper. Oddsmakers have the Aces as solid home favorites, and I'll break down whether or not that is warranted with my Mercury vs Aces prediction right here.
The biggest storyline entering this season opener is that this is a Finals rematch. Phoenix and Las Vegas continued their fierce rivalry last year, and both teams expect to remain near the top of the Western Conference standings this season. The Mercury have veteran depth and continue to lean on physical defense, while the Aces remain one of the most explosive scoring teams in the league.
The biggest factor in this game is the battle between Alyssa Thomas and A'ja Wilson. Wilson remains the most dominant two-way player in the WNBA after another MVP-caliber season that featured elite scoring, rebounding, and rim protection. Thomas gives Phoenix a versatile forward who can push the ball, create offense, and defend several positions. Whichever frontcourt gains control early could dictate the outcome of this game.
Las Vegas Aces
Phoenix Mercury
Las Vegas holds the edge entering this season opener because of its offensive depth, home-court advantage, and the presence of Wilson inside. Phoenix has enough veteran talent to stay competitive for much of the afternoon, though the Mercury may struggle to contain the Aces once the pace increases in the second half. I project a 9-10 point win for the Aces here, as they should cover the spread and continue their run of dominance over Phoenix dating back to last season.
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