Montreal Alouettes vs Hamilton Tiger-Cats Prediction - CFL Eastern Final
Updated July 9, 2026
The Montreal Alouettes will face the Hamilton Tiger‑Cats in the 2025 CFL Eastern Final at Hamilton Stadium. Montreal enters this matchup as a road favourite despite finishing second to the Ti-Cats in the East Division, thanks in large part to the return of quarterback Davis Alexander. Hamilton earned the top seed and the bye week, but the Tiger-Cats’ late-season form and earlier losses to Montreal raise questions. Here, I break down this year's Eastern Final and give you my Alouettes vs Tiger-Cats prediction.
The Alouettes are riding a wave of momentum going into the Eastern Final. With Davis Alexander back in the lineup, Montreal has been nearly flawless. Alexander is 12-0 in his career starts and looked sharp last week in the East Semi-Final. He completed 24 of 34 passes for 384 yards, one touchdown, and one interception.
Montreal also leaned on running back Stevie Scott III for 133 yards and two touchdowns in that win. Their defence is stout, ranked among the best in the league in fewest passing yards allowed. And while they gave up 33 points to the Winnipeg Blue Bombers last week, the defense of the Als has room to improve in this contest.
The Tiger-Cats have one of the league’s most potent passing attacks. Bo Levi Mitchell threw for 5,296 yards with 36 touchdowns this year, leading the CFL in passing yardage. Receivers such as Kenny Lawler, Tim White, and Kiondre Smith give the Tiger-Cats a vertical threat. Hamilton averaged 29.2 points per game and had 287.8 passing yards per game. Now the question is whether they can put up points in a similar fashion in the playoffs.
Hamilton won both regular-season matchups over the Als. But neither of those games featured Alexander at quarterback for Montreal. Montreal has dominated this matchup in recent years, winning 9 of the last 11 games they have played against Hamilton.
Score Projection: Montreal 27 – Hamilton 30
Win Probability: Montreal 48%, Hamilton 52%
We get a great quarterback matchup between Alexander and BLM in the Eastern Final. I think both teams will do a good bit of scoring in a game that should go over the total. But my best bet for this contest is not the total. Instead, I like taking the Ti-Cats as a home dog to cover the spread. Hamilton could very well win this game outright at home, but I'll take the field goal with them just to be safe.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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