Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs Montreal Alouettes Prediction - CFL Eastern Semifinal
Updated July 9, 2026
The Winnipeg Blue Bombers and Montreal Alouettes will square off in the Eastern Semifinal of the Canadian Football League playoffs on Saturday. Both clubs finished the regular season at 10–8. Winnipeg earned the crossover spot from the West, while Montreal secured a home playoff berth by finishing second in the East. Before kickoff in Montreal on Saturday, continue reading to get my Blue Bombers vs Alouettes prediction to kick off the 2025 CFL playoffs.
Crossover for Winnipeg: The Blue Bombers enter as a crossover team from the West for the first time in franchise history. No crossover team has ever reached the Grey Cup, which adds a psychological hurdle for them to clear in this contest. Montreal is at home and eager to avoid giving away home-field advantage by losing in this spot.
Team Momentum: Both teams ended the regular season at 10-8. Montreal appears to have slightly sharper form going into the playoffs. They’ve won five of their last six games straight up and will look to pick up where they left off heading into the playoffs. Winnipeg defeated Montreal at home 19-10 to finish the regular season. But both teams rested starters in that game and that game didn't teach us much about either team going into this game.
Montreal quarterback Davis Alexander is set to make his first playoff start in this game. How he handles that pressure will go a long way in determining how the Alouettes will perform in the first game of these playoffs. Winnipeg’s starter is Zach Collaros, who has experienced a down year relative to his usual standard. Collaros missed five games for the Bombers this year and only had one more touchdown pass than interceptions for the season. He needs to be on point for Winnipeg to have a shot to advance.
Score Projection: Montreal Alouettes 27 – Winnipeg Blue Bombers 24
Win Probability: Montreal 56% – Winnipeg 44%
Home-field advantage will be a huge factor in this game and it could be what ultimately moves Montreal into the next round of the playoffs. But I still think we are going to get a close game from Montreal on Saturday afternoon. The running game of the Blue Bombers should allow them to keep this game close throughout and I'll take the points with Winnipeg, while hoping that Collaros can slow down on the turnovers.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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