Calgary Stampeders vs BC Lions Prediction - CFL Western Semifinal
Updated July 9, 2026
The Calgary Stampeders will visit the BC Lions in the Western Semifinal in the 2025 CFL playoffs on Saturday. Both of these teams went 11-7 during the regular season and will try to keep their season alive in this game. Before the action begins in British Columbia, continue reading to get my Stampeders vs Lions prediction below.
Lions quarterback Nathan Rourke has put up a monster season. He has thrown for 5,290 yards and 31 touchdowns. He also has 564 rushing yards with 10 rushing touchdowns. He has been particularly punishing against Calgary, racking up 745 passing yards and six touchdowns in two meetings with the Stamps this season.
Calgary's Vernon Adams has a unique opportunity to get a playoff win over his former team in this game. He started his CFL career with BC and will try to take them down in this contest. To win this game, Adams must avoid turnovers, generate explosive plays, and keep his defense off the field for as long as possible to keep the ball away from Rourke.
Score Projection: BC Lions 31 – Calgary Stampeders 23
Win Probability: BC Lions 65%, Calgary Stampeders 35%
I expect the BC Lions to win and cover the spread on their home turf in this first-round playoff matchup. The Lions have a more consistent and explosive passing attack and they should be able to move the ball more effectively here. Vernon Adams Jr. will not be able to send his former team packing here, as the Lions should win with some margin at home.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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