2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Prediction
Updated July 9, 2026
The NASCAR Cup Series Championship race will take place on Sunday at Phoenix Raceway in Arizona. The Championship 4 drivers are Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, William Byron, and Chase Briscoe. They are all even on points entering this finale and the driver that performs the best in this race will have earned this year's Cup Series title. Before the green flag drops in Phoenix, continue reading for my NASCAR Cup Series Championship prediction.
The Championship 4 field at Phoenix is stacked with talent. Denny Hamlin enters as the betting favorite but he has also gone without a Cup Series title despite years of contention in his career. Kyle Larson is the only driver in this quartet with a championship already on his résumé. He has the experience necessary to get the job done on this stage. William Byron has been on the rise and made his third straight Championship 4 appearance by winning last week. And Chase Briscoe enters as the longshot with the least experience among the Championship 4.
There are cases to be made for several drivers in this race. Byron has recorded seven top-10 finishes in his past 10 Phoenix starts and he has one spring win here. Larson won this race for the Cup Series crown in 2021. Hamlin’s average finishes here have been mixed in the Next Gen car era, and Briscoe has a higher average finish number at this track despite less big-race experience in the playoffs.
This could also be the last championship race under the current Championship 4 format. NASCAR has tinkered with the structure of the playoffs for years to try and generate interest at the end of the season. They could go with a different format to keep more drivers in contention late in the year, but what that will look like is anyone's guess.
The odds to win the championship going into this race are as follows at DraftKings Sportsbook:
I'm not sure that any of these drivers has a clear advantage over the other three when it comes to chances of winning this race. Avoiding chaos from the pack and simply staying in contention for the entirety of the race could be good enough to secure the championship, depending on what happens around these drivers over the course of the race.
I think that Larson is the best choice among these four drivers from a value standpoint. He has experience winning this championship before and he is constantly one of the top drivers on this type of track layout. He could always get caught up in a wreck or something else that would derail his title hopes. But if he can make it through the race cleanly, I think he is the best option to take the title among the four remaining contenders.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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