Tonight’s Big 12 matchup between the Baylor Bears and the Kansas Jayhawks is an important one for the conference standings. Kansas comes into this game at Allen Fieldhouse riding high after a dominant win over second-ranked Iowa State, snapping the Cyclones’ long win streak and asserting itself in the Big 12 standings. Baylor looks to rebound from a poor early start in conference play, but enters with a high-scoring offense that can challenge any defense in the country. Here, I break down this matchup and give you my Baylor vs Kansas prediction.
Our Baylor vs Kansas Pick
Pick:
Kansas -7.5 ATS PRO
Confidence:
3/5
Game Snapshot
Matchup: Baylor Bears @ Kansas Jayhawks
Date & Time: Friday, January 16, 2026, 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence, Kansas
Broadcast: FOX
Key Storylines
Kansas is 12-5 overall and 2-2 in Big 12 competition. They’ve won 7 of 8 home games this season, showing a strong level of performance at Allen Fieldhouse.
The Jayhawks just delivered an 84-63 win over No. 2 Iowa State, led by big games from Tre White and freshman Darryn Peterson as they shot the lights out from three and controlled the tempo throughout. That was a huge game for the Jayhawks, as it moved them back to the .500 mark in Big 12 play while proving that they can compete with the best teams in college basketball.
Baylor enters at 11-5 and 1-3 in league play, coming off a solid 94-79 victory at Oklahoma State that ended a three-game skid. Tounde Yessoufou delivered 23 points on efficient shooting in that game. But there is a huge difference between winning in Stillwater against a struggling Oklahoma State team and winning in Lawrence in one of the toughest places to play in college basketball against the Jayhawks.
Baylor is one of the highest-scoring teams in the country, averaging 88.7 points per game, but their defense tends to allow more points than Kansas’ stingier group. If Baylor can turn this into a track meet, they can certainly steal this game, but that will be no easy task in The Phog.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
Recent history between these two shows Baylor has some success in recent meetings, but Kansas holds the clear edge at home. Baylor is just 1-21 at Kansas in their last 22 visits.
Baylor is 7-8 against the spread so far this season.
Kansas enters this game at 10-7 against the spread for the season.
Baylor is 9-6 to the over through 15 games.
The under is 11-6 in Kansas games this year.
Baylor vs Kansas Model Projection
Score Projection: Baylor 74 – Kansas 85 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Baylor 35%, Kansas 65% ATS PRO
Final Thoughts
Kansas proved a lot in their last game against Iowa State. And while it won't be an easy task to avoid a letdown after that performance, I do think that Kansas will avoid a letdown here against Baylor. I'll lay the points with the Jayhawks at home.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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