Tampa Bay Lightning vs St. Louis Blues Pick & Preview - 1/16/2026
Updated July 9, 2026
Friday’s National Hockey League showdown between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the St. Louis Blues is an important contest with playoff implications for the visitors. The Lightning arrive on the ice riding a remarkable 11-game win streak and carrying one of the NHL’s best offensive attacks. They will look for a 12th straight win to help them stay atop the Atlantic Division. Across the ice, the Blues are fighting to climb back into contention in the Western Conference. Here, I break down both sides and bring you my Lightning vs Blues prediction on the ice.
Pick: | Blues ML ATS PRO |
Confidence: | 2/5 |
The Tampa Bay Lightning are playing some of the best hockey in the league and have not lost in their last 11 games, sweeping through opponents with a combination of high-end scoring and confident goaltending. Their offense has been particularly impressive, with Tampa Bay reaching four goals or more in four of their last five wins. But they did just win a 2-1 game in a shootout against the Penguins and are certainly not immune to a sweat.
The Blues managed a 3-0 shutout victory against Carolina, ending a three-game losing streak. Despite that strong defensive outing, St. Louis has a ton of ground to make up in the Western Conference Wild Card hunt.
Tampa Bay’s goaltending has been anchored by Andrei Vasilevskiy, who an elite 2.28 GAA entering this contest. The Blues will likely counter with Joel Hofer, who has been solid and shares the league lead in shutouts. His most recent 33-save shutout of Carolina showcased his capabilities. Still, the offensive pressure the Lightning will bring could cause difficulties for Hofer if he is not sharp early in this game.
The Lightning’s offense gets a major lift from Nikita Kucherov, who has been red hot and is on a lengthy point streak, giving Tampa reliable production on both ends of the ice. Brandon Hagel has also impressed with scoring contributions in consecutive outings, supporting the Lightning attack. For the Blues, any adjustment after losing their leading scorer to injury could shift responsibilities to secondary players like Jordan Kyrou or Pavel Buchnevich, but Robert Thomas' absence looms large and could limit the Blues’ offensive ceiling.
Score Projection: Tampa Bay 2 – St. Louis 3 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Lightning 50%, Blues 50% ATS PRO
The Lightning are playing at an otherworldly level lately and could very well win a 12th game in a row here. But the amount of vig that you'd have to lay to back the Lightning makes me feel like the Blues are a decent value here. Look for this to be a close game and for Tampa to possibly lose in what is their fourth straight game away from home.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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