The Bellarmine Knights will take a trip to Lexington to face the Kentucky Wildcats on Tuesday afternoon. Bellarmine enters this matchup with a 5-6 record and hoping to shock the world with an upset win over a blue blood program. Kentucky is 8-4 and aiming to build on their marquee wins against St. John’s and Indiana recently. The Wildcats are firmly established as a substantial favorite in this contest, and I break down the betting markets right here while bringing you my Bellarmine vs Kentucky prediction.
Our Bellarmine vs Kentucky Pick
- Pick: Over 153.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Bellarmine Knights @ Kentucky Wildcats
- Date & Time: December 23, 2025, 1:00 PM ET
- Venue: Rupp Arena, Lexington, Kentucky
- Broadcast: SEC Network+
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Key Storylines
- Kentucky is coming off a 78-66 win over St. John’s and has won three straight, gaining momentum and confidence as the schedule moves toward conference play.
- The Wildcats have integrated key contributors this season, including Otega Oweh, who has led the team offensively while providing defensive pressure.
- Jayden Quaintance has returned from a long recovery from injury and has contributed immediately, giving Kentucky extra size and depth in the frontcourt.
- Kentucky is 7-1 at home so far this season. Their only loss on their home floor this year came against the North Carolina Tar Heels during the ACC/SEC Challenge. Kentucky has bounced back at home since then and will try to continue their winning ways at Rupp Arena in this matchup.
- Bellarmine has struggled on the road, entering this contest at 1-4 away from home. They only have a few wins against Division I competition so far this year.
- The Knights have offensive weapons like Jack Karasinski, who averages over 20 points per game. But depth and defensive consistency remain concerns. The Knights rank in the bottom 30 in the country in defensive efficiency according to KenPom, which could become a major problem against an explosive Wildcats offense.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- This will be only the second all-time meeting between Bellarmine and Kentucky. The previous encounter came in 2022, when Kentucky won decisively.
- Bellarmine is 7-2 against the spread so far this season.
- Kentucky is 6-6 against the spraed going into Tuesday afternoon.
- Bellarmine has seen five of nine games go over their totals so far this season.
- The under has hit in 7 of Kentucky's first 12 games.
Bellarmine vs Kentucky Model Projection
Score Projection: Bellarmine 63 – Kentucky 98
Win Probability: Bellarmine 8%, Kentucky 92%
Final Thoughts
I'm expecting us to see a lopsided game between Kentucky and Bellarmine on Tuesday afternoon. But I'm not sure if Kentucky can win by enough margin to cover the massive number in question here. Instead of laying all of those points with Kentucky, I think that the over is a better wager in this game. The dismal defense of the Knights should allow Kentucky to put up a huge number on the scoreboard to lead this game over 153.5 points.
Jay Sanin
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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