The Big 12 season officially begins with a Saturday afternoon showdown as the BYU Cougars venture into Bramlage Coliseum to face the Kansas State Wildcats. BYU enters this contest as one of the nation’s most impressive teams early in the 2025-26 season with a 12-1 overall record, while Kansas State arrives at 9-4 and eager to set the tone in conference play. Here, I break down what to expect from this contest in college basketball and give you my BYU vs Kansas State prediction.
Pick: | Kansas State +7.5 |
Confidence: | 3/5 |
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BYU enters Big 12 play after a dominant non-conference campaign, thanks largely to the play of freshman star AJ Dybantsa. He is averaging over 23 points per game on highly efficient shooting and contributing strong rebounding and playmaking numbers as well. The Cougars have won nine straight games and are 9-1 as favorites this season. But a road test in conference play could be a tougher task than anything they have gone up against in non-conference action this season.
Kansas State has a balanced scoring attack led by guard P.J. Haggerty, who is among the nation’s top scorers at nearly 23 points per contest. But the Wildcats have struggled at times defensively, ranking outside the top half nationally in points allowed. Stopping Dybantsa will be their top priority, but defense as a whole will be the key to this game for K-State.
BYU’s first true road test of the season will be a major test of their ability to handle hostile environments. Manhattan might be the toughest place to play in the Big 12 as a road team, right up there with Allen Fieldhouse for the Kansas Jayhawks. We will learn a lot about BYU based on how they play in this contest on Saturday afternoon.
Score Projection: BYU 83 – Kansas State 80
Win Probability: BYU 68%, Kansas State 32%
I am going to take the points with the Kansas State Wildcats on their home floor on Saturday afternoon. My projections still have the Cougars winning the game straight up, but this should be a closer game than the point spread would indicate. Look for BYU to struggle at times in their first hostile environment of the year, even if they eventually do win by a slim margin.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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