Oklahoma City Thunder vs Golden State Warriors Prediction - 1/2/2026
Updated July 9, 2026
The Oklahoma City Thunder head to Chase Center to take on the Golden State Warriors on Friday night in the NBA. The Thunder have been one of the most dominant teams in the league this season, led by MVP-caliber play from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, while the Warriors are dealing with significant injury questions around Stephen Curry and key rotation pieces. Here, I break down this Western Conference contest and give you my Thunder vs Warriors prediction for tonight.
Pick: | Thunder -8.5 |
Confidence: | 4/5 |
Add ATS as a Preferred Source on Google
Oklahoma City enters this contest as one of the best teams in the NBA, owning one of the league’s top records and boasting elite offensive and defensive metrics. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been outstanding, routinely carrying the Thunder on both ends of the floor and posting monster scoring lines that have led to a 32.1 points per game average. Recent games show OKC’s ability to score in bunches, including a 140-129 win over Atlanta where Gilgeous-Alexander poured in 39 points. The Thunder have won three straight games after losing two in a row to the San Antonio Spurs around Christmas time.
The Warriors are facing adversity as Stephen Curry is listed as questionable with a sprained ankle and Draymond Green is out for rest. Those issues will have an impact on Golden State’s defensive communication and potentially their outside shooting as well. Other rotation pieces like De’Anthony Melton are also questionable, meaning the Warriors will likely rely heavily on Jimmy Butler and role players to try and keep pace with OKC. The Thunder have won two straight games going into this matchup, but those were against the lowly Nets and Hornets.
Player | Prop |
|---|---|
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Over 31.5 Points |
Jimmy Butler | Under 5.5 Assists |
Chet Holmgren | Over 8.5 Rebounds |
Score Projection: Thunder 118 – Warriors 108
Win Probability: Thunder 75%, Warriors 25%
Oklahoma City appears to have the edge in nearly every phase of this matchup thanks to superior health, star power, and their overall level of performance this season. Golden State’s injury questions and lack of reliable secondary scoring without Curry make it difficult for them to contend with the Thunder’s scoring efficiency and defensive pressure. I will lay the points with OKC in the biggest game of the night in the Western Conference.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
Affiliate Disclosure
ATS.io uses affiliate links. If you sign up through a link on this page, we may earn a commission at no additional cost to you. Rankings are based on hands-on testing and published criteria, and affiliate relationships do not determine placement.
