The Cincinnati Bearcats visit the Texas Tech Red Raiders on Tuesday in a key Big 12 Conference game that has major implications for both teams as the regular season winds down. Texas Tech enters this contest as a nationally ranked squad with a strong home resume, while Cincinnati has shown signs of life after a recent offensive outburst. Here, I take a closer look at this matchup and you will find my Cincinnati vs Texas Tech prediction right here.
Our Cincinnati vs Texas Tech Pick
Pick: Cincinnati +6.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 3 out of 5
Game Snapshot
Matchup: Cincinnati Bearcats @ Texas Tech Red Raiders
Date & Time: Tuesday, February 24, 2026, 7:00 PM ET
Venue: United Supermarkets Arena, Lubbock, Texas
Broadcast: ESPN2 and ESPN+
Key Storylines
Texas Tech carries a 20-7 overall record and sits near the top of the Big 12 with a 10-4 conference mark.
Cincinnati enters at 15-12 and 7-7 in league play, coming off a strong offensive showing in its latest outing against an elite Kansas Jayhawks team at Allen Fieldhouse.
JT Toppin is done for the season for Texas Tech, which will make things tougher on them on both ends of the floor.
The Bearcats have won four games in a row and they will try to continue their winning ways in this one.
Key Players
Texas Tech
Christian Anderson: Leading the Red Raiders in playmaking with around 7.5 assists per game while also contributing over 15 points. His ability to orchestrate the offense and hit timely shots is central to Tech’s success.
Donovan Atwell: Coming off a big 26-point effort in the recent blowout win over Kansas State, Atwell’s scoring will be crucial in the absence of Toppin. His 3-point shooting and scoring ability give TTU a major advantage.
LeJuan Watts: Offers consistent scoring depth, averaging just over 12 points and adding physicality on both ends of the court. Watts’ scoring balance is valuable when defenses focus too much on the team’s primary options.
Cincinnati
Moustapha Thiam: The Bearcats’ leading contributor after a 28-point performance in the recent win over Kansas, Thiam will be expected to carry the scoring load again in this higher-profile game.
Baba Miller: A consistent inside threat who averages a double-double, Miller’s presence on the glass and scoring near the rim helps Cincinnati maintain offensive rhythm.
Day Day Thomas: As the team’s primary facilitator, Thomas combines scoring with assists, averaging about 3.6 dimes per game and causing matchup problems when he drives into the lane.
Stat Comparison
Stat
Cincinnati
Texas Tech
Points per game
72.7
82.1
Points allowed per game
67.0
72.3
Team Field Goal %
43%
47%
Rebounds per game
37.2
37.7
Assists per game
16.4
16.1
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
This is the first matchup between these teams this season.
Texas Tech is 14-13 against the spread going into this contest.
The Bearcats are 12-15 against the spread so far this year.
Cincinnati vs Texas Tech Model Projection
Score Projection: Cincinnati 76 – Texas Tech 79 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Cincinnati 36%, Texas Tech 64% ATS PRO
Final Thoughts
I'm going to take the points with Cincinnati in this matchup in the Big 12. The Bearcats proved against Kansas that they can hang with elite teams in hostile environments. Meanwhile, the absence of Toppin for the Red Raiders should make things tougher than usual on a Texas Tech team that could have contended for a Final Four berth if he was healthy. I'll take the Red Raiders to win, but for the Bearcats to cover.
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