The Cleveland State Vikings travel to face the Wright State Raiders on Wednesday in the Horizon League Tournament at the Nutter Center in Fairborn, Ohio. Wright State enters this contest as a heavy favorite after a successful regular season in conference play, while Cleveland State looks to pull off an upset after winning a game in the opening round. Before tip-off from Ohio, continue reading to find my Cleveland State vs Wright State prediction.
Our Cleveland State vs Wright State Pick
Pick: Wright State -13.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 4 out of 5
Game Snapshot
Matchup: Cleveland State Vikings @ Wright State Raiders
Date & Time: Wednesday, March 4, 2026, 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Nutter Center, Fairborn, Ohio
Broadcast: ESPN+
Key Storylines
Wright State finished the regular season with a strong record of 20-11 and 15-5 in Horizon League play, securing the top seed in the league tournament.
Cleveland State endured a difficult season at 11-21 overall with a 6-14 conference mark, entering this game in need of a breakthrough performance. A 101-93 win over IU Indy was an encouraging start to postseason play, but their defense was troubling to say the least in that game.
Recent head-to-head results favor Wright State, and the Raiders have been strong at home throughout the season.
Key Players
Wright State Raiders
Michael Cooper – As one of Wright State’s leading scorers, Cooper’s efficiency and scoring output (roughly 13.2 points per game) energize the Raiders’ offense and give them a consistent scoring threat.
TJ Burch – Contributes on both ends with around 3.5 assists per game and production as a secondary scorer, helping set up offense and keep drives alive.
Michael Imariagbe – Strong on the glass and a capable scorer inside, Imariagbe’s rebounding (about 7.0 per game) helps Wright State control possessions.
Cleveland State Vikings
Dayan Nessah – Leads Cleveland State in scoring with around 15.5 points per game and also contributes 6.4 rebounds, making him the focal point of the Vikings’ offense.
Tre Beard – While Nessah is the primary scoring option, the Vikings rely on complementary players like Tre Beard to help them offensively as well. Beard leads the Vikings in assists with 3.4 per game and his ball distribution will be important to set up good looks for teammates against a quality opponent.
Stat Comparison
Statistic
Cleveland State
Wright State
Points per game
80.4
80.2
Points allowed per game
85.8
73.6
Team Field Goal %
45.8%
48.7%
Rebounds per game
32.8
35.1
Assists per game
15.8
13.7
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
These teams split their two regular-season meetings this season, with the road team winning both games.
Wright State is 17-12 against the spread so far this year.
Cleveland State holds a 12-17 record against the spread on the season.
Cleveland State vs Wright State Model Projection
Score Projection: Cleveland State 73 – Wright State 88 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Cleveland State 12%, Wright State 88% ATS PRO
Final Thoughts
This Horizon League Tournament matchup heavily favors the Raiders based on recent performance, statistical advantages, and the overall consistency shown by Wright State throughout the season. The Vikings will need a near-perfect game and significant contributions beyond their top scorer to stay within striking distance. I don't think they will get those and Wright State should cover the spread as a heavy favorite.
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