The Horizon League Tournament first-round meeting between the between the Youngstown State Penguins and Robert Morris Colonials on Wednesday is expected to be a tight game. After sweeping Youngstown State earlier this season and riding a strong stretch of home success, Robert Morris enters this playoff environment with clear momentum. Conversely, Youngstown State has battled inconsistently down the stretch and sits on the wrong side of several key trends both straight up and against the spread. My Youngstown State vs Robert Morris preview breaks down the key factors shaping expectations for this clash, as both teams try to keep their seasons alive.
Our Youngstown State vs Robert Morris Pick
Pick: Robert Morris -4.5 Confidence: 4 out of 5
Game Snapshot
Matchup: Youngstown State Penguins @ Robert Morris Colonials
Date & Time: Wednesday, March 4, 2026, 7:00 PM Eastern Time
Venue: UPMC Events Center, Moon Township, Pennsylvania
Broadcast: ESPN+
Key Storylines
Robert Morris has dominated this season’s series against Youngstown State, completing a regular-season sweep with a 72-66 road win in early February.
The Colonials enter the Horizon League Tournament with a strong home record and a long winning streak in league play, boasting more consistent recent performances than the Penguins.
Youngstown State has struggled to maintain consistency, and recent results indicate challenges both offensively and in defending the perimeter.
Key Players
Robert Morris Key Players
DeSean Goode – A force on the boards and in transition, Goode’s rebounding and scoring give the Colonials second-chance opportunities and put constant pressure on opposing defenses.
Team Balanced Scoring – Robert Morris has multiple contributors capable of scoring in double figures, helping sustain offensive rhythm, especially at home. Ryan Prather Jr. leads the team with just over 15 points per game, but this is a group that relies on way more than just one primary scorer.
Youngstown State Key Players
Cris Carroll – The Penguins’ leading scorer, Carroll’s efficiency and ability to create offense is pivotal for Youngstown State to keep pace, particularly against tough defenses. He averages over 17 points per game on the season.
Supporting Cast – Other contributors on Youngstown State will need to produce above their season averages for the Penguins to have a realistic chance of pulling off an upset.
Stat Comparison
Statistic
Youngstown State
Robert Morris
Points per game
77.6
78.2
Points allowed per game
73.2
72.8
Team Field Goal %
47%
47%
Rebounds Per Game
34.0
37.7
Assists Per Game
14.6
17.9
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
This season, Robert Morris has taken both regular-season games against Youngstown State, winning the February 7 matchup by a six-point margin.
Youngstown State is 10-17-1 against the spread this season.
Robert Morris enters postseason play with an 18-10-1 record against the spread.
Youngstown State vs Robert Morris Model Projection
Score Projection: Youngstown State 74 – Robert Morris 79
Win Probability: Youngstown State 35%, Robert Morris 65%
Final Thoughts
With their strong head-to-head record, recent winning streak, and home-court advantage, Robert Morris holds the edge in this postseason first round game. Youngstown State has talent, but its inconsistency and struggles to cover the spread make it a less attractive pick for me. I'll go with the Colonials to hold serve at home and to move into the next round of the Horizon League tourney.
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