Two Atlantic 10 contenders collide Friday night as Dayton visits Saint Louis in a nationally televised showcase at Chaifetz Arena. Saint Louis has surged through January with a 13-0 home record and a top-25 ranking, while Dayton brings a dangerous backcourt and an improving defense into this game. Before these top-four teams in the A10 do battle, continue reading for my Dayton vs Saint Louis prediction in college basketball.
Our Dayton vs Saint Louis Pick
Pick: Dayton +11.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 2/5
Game Snapshot
Matchup: Dayton Flyers @ Saint Louis Billikens
Date & Time: Friday, January 30, 2026, 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Chaifetz Arena, St. Louis, Missouri
Broadcast: CBS Sports Network
Key Storylines
Saint Louis enters on a lengthy win streak with a 20-1 overall record and 8-0 record in A-10 play, thriving at Chaifetz Arena with a 13-0 home record. The Billikens have won 14 games in a row and will try to extend that winning streak in front of a national audience.
Dayton sits 14-7 and 5-3 in the A-10, led by guard Javon Bennett at 16.3 ppg with 3.2 apg. Two-way guard De’Shayne Montgomery adds 14.9 ppg and 2.7 spg, providing on-ball pressure defensively while doing some much-needed scoring.
Saint Louis’ balanced offense is headlined by center Robbie Avila, wing Dion Brown, and guard Kellen Thames generating steals on the perimeter.
Injury notes to monitor: Dayton’s Jordan Derkack has recently missed time with a lower-body issue. For Saint Louis, forward Brady Dunlap has been listed as questionable of late.
Motivation check: Saint Louis can strengthen its at-large resume and protect home court with a win in this game. Dayton seeks a quality road win to solidify its own resume, though the Flyers might need to win the Atlantic 10 tournament to earn a berth in the NCAA Tournament at this point in time.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
Recent meetings: Dayton won 71-63 at Saint Louis on January 31, 2025, and 75-67 at home on March 4, 2025.
Dayton is 9-12 against the spread this season.
Saint Louis enters this matchup with a 12-7-1 record against the spread this year.
The over is 11-9 in games involving the Billikens this season.
The under is 13-8 through 21 games for the Dayton Flyers.
Dayton vs Saint Louis Model Projection
Score Projection: Dayton 66 – Saint Louis 70
Win Probability: Dayton 36%, Saint Louis 64%
Final Thoughts
Saint Louis should be able to win this game at home, but I'm not convinced that the Billikens will win by double-digits. I'm going to take the points with Dayton here, as they should at least push Saint Louis somewhat, even if the leaders of the A-10 should eventually come away with a victory in a huge game for their overall resume this season.
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