Two top-10 programs collide at Breslin Center with Big Ten positioning and bragging rights on the line, as the Michigan Wolverines and Michigan State Spartans do battle in college basketball. Michigan arrives at 19-1 and 9-1 in conference play after a gritty 75-72 win over previously undefeated Nebraska. Michigan State comes in at 19-2 and 9-1 in the Big Ten, riding a seven-game win streak built on elite defense. Before this huge game in college hoops, continue reading for my Michigan vs Michigan State prediction.
Our Michigan vs Michigan State Pick
Pick: Michigan State ML ATS PRO
Confidence: 4/5
Game Snapshot
Matchup: Michigan Wolverines @ Michigan State Spartans
Date & Time: Friday, January 30, 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Breslin Center, East Lansing, Michigan
Broadcast: FOX
Key Storylines
Form and rankings: Michigan sits top-3 nationally at 19-1 after defeating Nebraska 75-72. Michigan State is ranked 7th in the country at 19-2, fresh off a 91-48 demolition of Maryland and an 88-79 overtime road win at Rutgers earlier this week.
Michigan pillars: Yaxel Lendeborg leads the team at roughly 14.2 points per game with two-way impact on the glass making him one of the best players in the country. Morez Johnson adds about over 13 points and 7.2 boards per game on high efficiency. Elliot Cadeau fuels the backcourt at 5.3 assists per game and has lifted his perimeter accuracy above 40% from deep. That trio has made this Michigan team one of the best in college basketball.
Michigan State engine: Jeremy Fears Jr. paces the Spartans at 14.1 points and 8.9 assists per game, while Jaxon Kohler 9.3 rebounds per contest. MSU’s defense allows only about 63.5 points per game and owns one of the sport’s better opponent field-goal percentages. The Spartans are 11-1 at home going into this season-defining matchup.
Injuries and availability: Michigan has Winters Grady listed day-to-day. Earlier this month, Lendeborg dealt with a calf bruise but has continued to play. Michigan State’s notable absence remains wing Kaleb Glenn, who is out for the season. No fresh setbacks were reported midweek.
This game has huge seeding implications for these teams, both in the Big Ten standings and when looking ahead to the NCAA Tournament. A win here would help cement a case for either of these teams to be an NCAA Tournament one-seed if they kept winning games, while helping them in terms of Big Ten tournament seeding as well.
Betting Trends
Michigan State is 10-9-2 against the spread so far this season.
Michigan is 9-11 against the spread going into Friday night.
The under is 13-7 in Michigan's games this year.
The under is 15-6 in Michigan State games this season.
Michigan vs Michigan State Model Projection
Score Projection: Michigan Wolverines 71 – Michigan State Spartans 73
Win Probability: Michigan Wolverines 46%, Michigan State Spartans 54%
Final Thoughts
This is going to be an extremely close game between two teams that could absolutely make Final Four runs this season. I lean toward Michigan State as the best value play in this contest, as they have been spectacular at home this season and Michigan has struggled to cover the spread as a road team this year. But no matter what the result of this game ends up being, it should be a great game and we should learn a lot about both squads going forward.
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