Florida State and Dayton will meet Tuesday night in a non-conference college basketball game from UD Arena. The Seminoles arrive in Dayton on a four-game losing streak, while the Flyers are 8-3 and looking to stay undefeated on their home floor for the season. Before tip-off from Ohio, keep reading to get my breakdown of this matchup, including my Florida State vs Dayton prediction.
Our Florida State vs Dayton Pick
- Pick: Dayton Flyers -6.5
- Confidence: 4/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Florida State Seminoles @ Dayton Flyers
- Date & Time: Tuesday, December 16, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: UD Arena, Dayton, Ohio
- Broadcast: CBS Sports Network
Add ATS as a Preferred Source on Google
Key Storylines
- Florida State enters this contest at 5-5 on the season and struggling offensively, having dropped its last four games. The Seminoles were most recently beaten by UMass 103-95, a contest marked by defensive lapses and poor three-point shooting. That slump has raised questions about their ability to compete on the defensive end of the floor.
- Dayton is 8-3 and undefeated at home this season, buoyed by balanced scoring and efficient shooting. The Flyers topped North Florida 84-61 in their most recent outing, showcasing their ability to control tempo and clean up on the glass.
- Florida State’s leading scorers like Robert McCray V have contributed offensively, but the Seminoles’ defensive metrics and shooting efficiency have been problems, putting pressure on their backcourt to deliver against a disciplined A-10 opponent.
- This is just the second true road game for Florida State this season. They lost their first road game of the season to the Florida Gators. And while there is no shame in losing to the defending national champions, Florida State's play since then hasn't inspired much confidence that they will turn things around in a spot like this one.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- This series marks the first meeting of these two teams since the home-and-home agreement was established. There is no historical head-to-head data between the Seminoles and Flyers.
- Florida State has a 5-5 record against the spread this season.
- Dayton is 5-6 against the spread so far this year.
- The Flyers have gone under the total in 6 of their first 11 games.
- The under has cashed in 6 of their first 10 outings.
Florida State vs Dayton Model Projection
Score Projection: Florida State 74 – Dayton 83
Win Probability: Florida State 23%, Dayton 77%
Final Thoughts
I am going to lay the points with the Dayton Flyers in this matchup against Florida State. Dayton is unbeaten at home so far this year and they should continue playing better basketball than the Seminoles here. Florida State ranks seventh in adjusted tempo per KenPom, but Dayton's elite defense should be able to take care of things no matter how fast this game is played.
Jay Sanin
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
Affiliate Disclosure
ATS.io uses affiliate links. If you sign up through a link on this page, we may earn a commission at no additional cost to you. Rankings are based on hands-on testing and published criteria, and affiliate relationships do not determine placement.
