The Hampton Pirates and Jackson State Tigers will play in college basketball action at Gateway Center Arena in College Park on Thursday evening. The Tigers enter the Chris Paul HBCU Classic with a 1-9 record on the season and they will try to turn things around against a Hampton team that can get to the .500 mark for the year with a win. Before tip-off from Georgia, you can continue reading to find my Hampton vs Jackson State prediction here.
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Hampton enters this game with a 5-6 record, averaging 73.2 points per game this season. That scoring average is inflated somewhat by a couple of huge scoring outputs against teams from below the Division I level. Still, Hampton's advanced metrics are superior to those of Jackson State going into this game and they will try to impose their will against the Tigers in this contest.
Jackson State has experienced a difficult nonconference slate, sitting at 1-9. The Tigers average just 58.0 points per game while surrendering 90.0 points per game to their opponents. The disparity between points scored and points allowed speaks to just how difficult the non-conference strength of schedule has been for the Tigers. KenPom's non-conference strength of schedule metric places Jackson State 2nd out of 365 Division I men's basketball teams.
This is one of those games where it is so important to look beyond the raw statistics for both teams when handicapping the game. Jackson State's numbers look truly horrible so far this season, but they have played half of their games this season against teams that were ranked at the times of those games. They have also played some unranked teams from power conferences. The question here is whether or not the Tigers will raise their level of play against a more beatable opponent on Thursday.
Score Projection: Hampton 70 – Jackson State 68
Win Probability: Hampton 68%, Jackson State 32%
It is very easy to look at Jackson State's statistics this year and to assume that they aren't any good. But we should get a much clearer picture on who they are in this matchup. I'm not sure that the Tigers will win outright against a more beatable opponent, but I do think that playing only quality Division I opponents so far this year will help them stay competitive in this matchup. I'll go with Jackson State to cover the spread as an underdog here.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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