The North Florida Ospreys (2-8) head into Thursday’s game against the Charleston Southern Buccaneers (7-5) as sizable underdogs in a game set to start before noon. The Buccaneers have been strong at home, riding a five-game home winning streak, while the Ospreys have struggled away from Jacksonville and are seeking their first road win of the season. Before tip-off in Charleston, continue reading to get my North Florida vs Charleston Southern prediction for this matchup.
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The Charleston Southern Buccaneers have been strong at home this season, maintaining an unbeaten record on their court and ranking in the upper echelon of the Big South Conference in defense. Charleston Southern allows 74.8 points per game while holding teams to under 40% shooting from the field, which has been a key factor in its home success and 7-5 overall record.
Brycen Blaine has been a key contributor for the Buccaneers, averaging 20.1 points, nearly 8 rebounds, and close to 4 assists per game. Additionally, A’lahn Sumler has been efficient, adding double-digit scoring and strong shooting in recent games.
The North Florida Ospreys enter this contest struggling, particularly on the road, where they are 0-5 this season. UNF’s offense produces points, averaging just under 79 points per game. But their defense has been porous, surrendering over 86 points per contest. Kamrin Oriol leads the Ospreys with 16.3 points per game and is the primary playmaker for UNF.
North Florida’s inconsistency on defense and recent losses make them a difficult pick against an improving Charleston Southern team. The Ospreys have lost three games in a row, all by nine points or more. Though, to be fair, two of those losses came against bigger programs in Dayton and Gonzaga.
Score Projection: Charleston Southern 86 – North Florida 73
Win Probability: Charleston Southern 82%, North Florida 18%
The defense of North Florida is a major concern going into this contest on Thursday morning. The Ospreys rank 358th out of 365 Division I teams this season in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. I'm expecting Charleston Southern to punish UNF's porous defense and for the Buccaneers to cover the spread as a favorite at home.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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