The Kansas State Wildcats head to Lubbock to face the Texas Tech Red Raiders on Saturday in a Big 12 college basketball matchup. Texas Tech has a strong home record and a solid conference mark this season, but will need to overcome a key injury if they want to get a win here. Kansas State has had trouble putting consistent results together and they are double-digit underdogs on the road here. Before tip-off from Lubbock, you will find my Kansas State vs Texas Tech prediction.
Our Kansas State vs Texas Tech Pick
Pick: Kansas State +14.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 3 out of 5
Game Snapshot
Matchup: Kansas State Wildcats @ Texas Tech Red Raiders
Date & Time: Saturday, February 21, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Venue: United Supermarkets Arena, Lubbock, Texas
Broadcast: FOX
Key Storylines
Texas Tech enters this game as a ranked Big 12 contender at 19-7 on the season with a 12-1 home record and offensive firepower that has produced consistent scoring outputs this year. But they are without JT Toppin for the rest of the season after he picked up a season-ending injury earlier in the week.
Kansas State (11-15) comes in tied for the worst record in the Big 12. The Wildcats did show life with a big scoring night from PJ Haggerty in their last outing in a win over Baylor, but this will be a much tougher test for K-State.
Key Players
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Christian Anderson - Averaging around 19 points per game, with efficient shooting near 48% overall. His steady scoring provides a go-to option when Tech needs buckets and that will be even more evident with Toppin out for the year.
Donovan Atwell - Atwell is one of three remaining players on the Red Raiders who is averaging over 10 points per game. His usage should increase with Toppin out of action.
Kansas State Wildcats
PJ Haggerty - Coming off a 34-point game, Haggerty is Kansas State’s principal offensive threat and has shown the ability to carry the scoring load on any given night.
Nate Johnson - The Wildcats’ floor general, averaging around 12 points, with strong assist production and defensive activity.
Stat Comparison
Statistic
Kansas State
Texas Tech
Points per game
80.6
81.4
Points allowed per game
80.4
72.3
Team Field Goal %
46%
46%
Rebounds per game
34.7
37.7
Assists per game
17.8
16.0
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
This is the first Big 12 meeting this year between these programs.
K-State is 11-15 against the spread heading into this contest.
Texas Tech enters this game with a 13-13 record against the spread.
Kansas State vs Texas Tech Model Projection
Score Projection: Kansas State 71 – Texas Tech 80 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Kansas State 23%, Texas Tech 77% ATS PRO
Final Thoughts
Texas Tech should get another win in this contest. But I'm going to take the points with Kansas State as an underdog here. The Wildcats are likely to make things difficult on Texas Tech here, especially without Toppin available to bail out the Red Raiders with buckets in the paint. This game should be decided by close to 10 points, falling inside of the number for the underdogs.
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