The SEC rivalry between the Missouri Tigers and the Arkansas Razorbacks will write another chapter on Saturday, with both teams entering this contest with something to prove. Arkansas hosts this key conference battle at Bud Walton Arena as a significant favorite in a game that carries postseason implications for both squads. Before tip-off from Fayetteville, you can find my Missouri vs Arkansas prediction below.
Our Missouri vs Arkansas Pick
Pick: Arkansas Razorbacks -10.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 3 out of 5
Game Snapshot
Matchup: Missouri Tigers @ Arkansas Razorbacks
Date & Time: Saturday, February 21, 2026, 4:00 PM ET
Venue: Bud Walton Arena, Fayetteville, Arkansas
Broadcast: ESPN
Key Storylines
Arkansas enters as a double‑digit favorite and boasts a strong home record in SEC play this season, leveraging its physicality and scoring ability to grind out victories.
Missouri has gone 4‑1 in its last five, but their performance away from home has been less reliable and they now face a hostile environment against a high‑octane Razorbacks offense.
Both of these teams are within a game of second place in the SEC standings, making this an extremely important contest in the race to end up behind only Florida when the SEC tournament hits.
Key Players
Arkansas Razorbacks
Darius Acuff Jr. – Arkansas’ leading scorer, averaging 22.3 PPG while contributing assists and playmaking for others. His ability to create shots and facilitate for teammates will be central to the Razorbacks maintaining offensive balance.
Trevon Brazile – A secondary scoring option and rebounder, contributing consistently on both ends and helping Arkansas control the glass and support their perimeter game.
Missouri Tigers
Mark Mitchell – Missouri’s top offensive threat, averaging around 16.9 PPG. Mitchell leads the Tigers in points, rebounds, and assists per game. His scoring and leadership are crucial for Missouri to stay competitive in this road contest.
Jayden Stone – Another key scorer whose ability to provide offensive balance helps ease pressure on Mitchell and gives Missouri multiple scoring avenues.
Stat Comparison
Stat
Missouri
Arkansas
Points Per Game
80.1
89.8
Points Allowed Per Game
74.5
78.0
Field Goal %
49%
50%
Rebounds Per Game
36.5
36.1
Assists Per Game
14.7
17.2
Head‑to‑Head & Betting Trends
This is the first matchup between these teams this season.
Missouri is 11-15 against the spread this year.
Arkansas is 18-8 against the spread going into this matchup.
Missouri vs Arkansas Model Projection
Score Projection: Missouri 76 – Arkansas 88 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Missouri 25%, Arkansas 75% ATS PRO
Final Thoughts
This SEC encounter appears likely to go to the Razorbacks, especially with their home crowd and offensive firepower working in unison. Arkansas’ ability to score at a high clip and its consistent performance against the spread at home this season make them a compelling choice in this matchup. Missouri will need Mitchell and company to execute efficiently and limit turnovers to stay within striking distance. Ultimately, I project a double-digit win for an Arkansas team that is positioned to secure a comfortable win and cover the spread in this game.
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