The Little Rock Trojans and the Lindenwood Lions face off on Wednesday in an Ohio Valley Conference Tournament opener that could set the tone for both teams’ postseason aspirations. Lindenwood enters with a winning record and momentum from a convincing victory to close the regular season, while Little Rock is looking to extend an underdog run that saw them clinch a tournament berth despite a sub .500 record. Before tip-off in Evansville, continue reading to find my Little Rock vs Lindenwood prediction right here.
Our Little Rock vs Lindenwood Pick
Pick: Lindenwood -2.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 3.5 out of 5
Game Snapshot
Matchup: Little Rock Trojans @ Lindenwood Lions
Date & Time: Wednesday, March 4, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Venue: Ford Center, Evansville, Indiana
Broadcast: ESPN+
Key Storylines
Both teams split their regular-season series and have won on the road against the other, adding intrigue to this neutral-site tournament opener.
Lindenwood concluded its regular season with a dominant 91-69 win over Western Illinois that showcased its offensive potential.
Little Rock is coming in as a No. 7 seed with mixed results but has won three of its last six to secure postseason play.
Key Players
Lindenwood Lions
Anias Futrell: The Lions’ leading scorer, averaging about 17.9 points per game, and six rebounds, Futrell can take over offensively and stretch defenses with his shooting.
Dontrez Williams: A consistent scorer over the last ten games, averaging around 15.6 points, who also contributes steals and defensive energy.
Mekhi Cooper: Handles playmaking duties with roughly 4.1 assists per game, helping manage the Lions’ offense.
Little Rock Trojans
Johnathan Lawson: The All-OVC First Team selection and Little Rock’s top scorer at roughly 16.2 points per game. Lawson is the focal point of the Trojans’ offense.
Cameron Wallace: Offers a dual threat with scoring and rebounding, averaging about 12.6 points and 6.9 boards, and has been key in clutch moments.
Kachi Nzeh: A perimeter threat, averaging close to 1.8 made three-pointers over recent games, a stat that can swing momentum if he heats up.
Stat Comparison
Stat
Little Rock
Lindenwood
Points per Game
70.8
78.3
Points Allowed per Game
74.2
73.2
Team Field Goal %
45%
46%
Rebounds per Game
33.3
38.7
Assists per Game
14.1
14.9
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
In recent meetings this season, the teams split their matchups, each winning on the other’s court.
Little Rock is 12-17 against the spread going into conference tournament play.
Lindenwood is 12-15-1 ATS going into this postseason matchup.
Little Rock vs Lindenwood Model Projection
Score Projection: Little Rock 74 – Lindenwood 81 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Little Rock 39%, Lindenwood 61% ATS PRO
Final Thoughts
This OVC Tournament opener looks set to feature Lindenwood’s offensive strengths against a Little Rock team that can keep games competitive but has struggled to contain higher-scoring lineups. With consistent production from Futrell and Williams, Lindenwood holds a slight edge in scoring and rebounding that could be decisive in a close contest. I am laying the points with the Lions in what should be a competitive game in Indiana.
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