Old Dominion and Georgia Southern collide on Wednesday in the second round of the Sun Belt Conference Tournament. Both clubs enter this elimination game with something to prove after solid but inconsistent regular seasons. Old Dominion is coming off a strong win in its opening round, while Georgia Southern seeks to regain momentum after an up-and-down final stretch of regular‑season play during which it struggled to close out some tight contests. This article breaks down Wednesday's Old Dominion vs Georgia Southern matchup, and gives you my projection on how it will turn out.
Our Old Dominion vs Georgia Southern Pick
Pick: Old Dominion -1.5
Confidence: 3 out of 5
Game Snapshot
Matchup: Old Dominion Monarchs @ Georgia Southern Eagles
Date & Time: Wednesday, March 4, 2026, 8:30 PM ET
Venue: Pensacola Bay Center, Pensacola, Florida
Broadcast: ESPN+
Key Storylines
Old Dominion (12‑20) enters this contest having defeated ULM 87‑80 in the opening round after an aggressive start and with balanced scoring.
Georgia Southern (16‑15) finished the regular season 8‑10 in Sun Belt play, with strong perimeter shooting but inconsistency late in games.
This is the third meeting of the season between these teams, and Georgia Southern has won both previous matchups by narrow margins, including an 87‑84 game in mid‑January.
Old Dominion is playing for the second night in a row here, while Georgia Southern has a rest advantage that could make the difference in the game.
Key Players
Georgia Southern Eagles
Tyren Moore: Leading the Eagles in scoring with around 15.3 points per contest while averaging several made triples and providing a perimeter threat that Old Dominion must guard closely.
Spudd Webb: Averaging roughly 15 points along with rebounds, he gives Georgia Southern consistent two‑way contributions on both ends of the floor.
Old Dominion Monarchs
Ketron Shaw: Leading ODU offensively with around 17 per game, Shaw’s ability to score inside and outside anchors the Monarchs’ attack.
LJ Thomas: Providing playmaking with assists and scoring around 11 points a game, his floor generalship is crucial for Old Dominion in close scenarios.
Caelum Swanton‑Rodger: The rebounding presence helps secure extra possessions, while also chipping in valuable baskets on second chances.
Stat Comparison
Stat
Old Dominion
Georgia Southern
Points per game
75.9
80.4
Points allowed per game
77.6
79.9
Team Field Goal %
44%
43%
Rebounds Per Game
35.1
34.7
Assists Per Game
13.1
11.0
Head‑to‑Head & Betting Trends
During this season, the teams have already met twice, and Georgia Southern captured both past games by tight margins, including an 87‑84 victory in the second of those two games.
Old Dominion is 16-15 against the spread going into this game.
Georgia Southern is 12-17 against the spread heading into this contest.
Old Dominion vs Georgia Southern Model Projection
Score Projection: Old Dominion 84 – Georgia Southern 81
Win Probability: Old Dominion 54%, Georgia Southern 46%
Final Thoughts
This Sun Belt Tournament showdown shapes up as a tight contest between two familiar foes. While Old Dominion holds a slight favorite status with oddsmakers, Georgia Southern’s recent head‑to‑head success and offensive production make it hard to bet against them. But I'm going to do that anyway, as the Monarchs have confidence from getting a win in this building a night ago and should steal another one to advance here.
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