Two ACC foes meet in South Bend with plenty on the line as the Virginia Cavaliers and Notre Dame Fighting Irish meet on Tuesday night. Virginia enters Tuesday with a strong record, but is tasked with bouncing back after a loss to North Carolina. Notre Dame ended a losing streak with a home win over Boston College last time out. Which ACC team will get a win in this matchup? Continue reading to get my Virginia vs Notre Dame prediction in college hoops.
Our Virginia vs Notre Dame Pick
Pick: Notre Dame +9.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: ★★★☆☆
Game Snapshot
Matchup: Virginia Cavaliers @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Date & Time: Tuesday, January 27, 7:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Purcell Pavilion, South Bend, Indiana
Broadcast: ESPN2
Key Storylines
Current form: Virginia fell 85-80 to North Carolina on January 24 after leading at halftime, snapping an 11-game winning streak. Notre Dame erased a 13-point second-half deficit to beat Boston College 68-64 on January 24. The Cavaliers have had the better season by a wide margin, but Notre Dame will try to build on their win last time out at the expense of Virginia.
Availability: Notre Dame star guard Markus Burton, who averaged 18.5 points before surgery in December, remains out with no firm return date. Virginia guard Jacari White has been upgraded recently and is trending in the right direction.
Primary scorers: Virginia’s Thijs De Ridder leads the Cavaliers at 16.3 points per game. Notre Dame’s top active scorer is freshman Jalen Haralson at 14.7 points, with Braeden Shrewsberry coming off a 22-point night and Carson Towt anchoring the Irish on the glass with 9.9.
Virginia averages 83.8 points per game this season and looks very different from previous iterations of the program. Their defense is still solid, allowing 68 points per game, but they are much more explosive and will try to use that to their advantage here.
Rebounding gap: Virginia averages 4.4 rebounds per game more than Notre Dame this season. But Towt will try to cut into that disparity by controlling both the offensive and defensive glass here.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
Virginia is 18-5 all-time against Notre Dame going into this game.
Virginia is 11-6-2 against the spread going into Tuesday night.
Notre Dame enters this contest at 10-10 against the spread this year.
The under is 11-8 in games involving Virginia this season.
Notre Dame has gone over the total in 12 of its first 20 games.
Virginia vs Notre Dame Model Projection
Score Projection: Virginia 70 – Notre Dame 65
Win Probability: Virginia 72%, Notre Dame 28%
Final Thoughts
My best bet for this matchup is for Notre Dame to cover the spread as an underdog on their home floor. The Cavaliers have a huge statistical advantage going into this matchup, but the Fighting Irish got a win at home last time out and they should be able to fight in this contest as well. I'll take the points with Notre Dame in what should be a competitive contest in the ACC.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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