Alabama Crimson Tide vs Indiana Hoosiers Rose Bowl Prediction & Odds - 1/1/2026
Updated July 9, 2026
The Alabama Crimson Tide and Indiana Hoosiers will meet in the Rose Bowl on New Year's Day in the quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff. Alabama got a road win in the opening round of the playoff over the Oklahoma Sooners, while Indiana arrives in Pasadena after a first-round bye. Before kickoff from California, continue reading to get my Alabama vs Indiana prediction before the second round of the CFP begins.
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Alabama's resilience is a huge storyline going into this contest. The Crimson Tide fell behind 17-0 in the first round against the Oklahoma Sooners on the road in Norman. But they fought back and scored 34 of the final 41 points of the game to win and set up this contest against the top seed in the College Football Playoff. Now Alabama has momentum and is able to play at a neutral site again.
Indiana comes into the playoff after a first-round bye. The Hoosiers last took the field in the Big Ten championship game, beating the previously-undefeated Ohio State Buckeyes to earn the top seed in this 12-team tournament. Indiana has handed several teams in this playoff their first loss of the season and will try to end Alabama's season as well.
Ty Simpson did enough for Alabama to win in his first College Football Playoff start. Simpson had over 200 passing yards and two touchdowns against Oklahoma, avoiding any interceptions to help Alabama stay in the game. He will need to avoid putting the ball in harm's way again in this matchup if Alabama is going to move on.
Simpson will be opposed by Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza. Mendoza won this year's Heisman Trophy, throwing for 2,980 yards with 33 touchdown passes and just 6 interceptions. The question will be whether or not Mendoza can continue producing on the biggest stage of his career against a college football dynasty.
Score Projection: Indiana 34, Alabama 27
Win Probability: Indiana 58%, Alabama 42%
Indiana will have to overcome a lack of experience on this big a stage in football. But the Hoosiers have a rest advantage and a coaching advantage going into this matchup and I'm expecting Indiana to win and cover the spread at the Rose Bowl to advance to the semifinals of the playoff.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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