Alabama will travel to Columbia for an SEC matchup with Missouri on Saturday afternoon. The Crimson Tide have won four games in a row since stumbling in their season opener. They will try to knock off an undefeated Tigers squad that has dominated at home so far this year. Before these top 15 programs face off in college football, continue reading to get my Alabama vs Missouri prediction.
Our Alabama vs Missouri Pick
- Pick: Missouri +3.5
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Alabama Crimson Tide vs Missouri Tigers
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 11, 2025, 12:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Memorial Stadium, Columbia, MO
- Broadcast: ABC
Alabama vs Missouri Odds
Odds | Line |
|---|
Spread | Alabama –3.5 |
Moneyline | Alabama –165 | Missouri +140 |
Total (O/U) | 51.5 |
Key Storylines
- Undefeated Missouri vs Battle-Tested Alabama: Missouri enters this game at 5–0 and has routinely blown out its opponents. They are averaging 45.2 points per game while allowing just 14.6. Alabama has faced stiffer competition and lost their opener to Florida State before winning four games in a row. Some believe Missouri’s schedule thus far has been soft, making this their first serious test.
- Running game battle: Missouri’s freshman running back Ahmad Hardy leads the nation in rushing with 730 yards on 103 carries and nine touchdowns. He is a key weapon for the Tigers, while Alabama doesn't have a 200-yard rusher for the season so far.
- Alabama’s pass rush and havoc metrics: Alabama’s defense ranks poorly in sack rate and pressure generation. That could give Missouri opportunities to protect their quarterback and set up chunk plays down the field.
- Road test for Bama: Alabama is 1-1 on the road so far this season. They lost outright as a favorite against Florida State and won outright as an underdog against Georgia.
Quarterback Play
Missouri quarterback Beau Pribula has delivered strong performances this season. He has completed 75.8% of his passes with nine touchdowns and three interceptions. He is efficient and rarely turns the ball over. He will need to avoid turnovers to help his team win this contest.
Alabama signal-caller Ty Simpson has been fantastic through the air for Alabama this season. He has 13 touchdown passes and just one interception, leading a passing attack that is much improved from a season ago.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Alabama is 4–1 against the spread in its first five games.
- Missouri is 3-2 against the spread so far this season.
- Alabama is 3-2 to the over so far this year.
- Four of Missouri's first five games have gone over their totals.
- Alabama is 6-2 all-time against Missouri and has won six straight against the Tigers.
Alabama vs Missouri Model Projection
Score Projection: Alabama 28 – Missouri 27
Win Probability: Alabama 55%, Missouri 45%
Final Thoughts
I think that this is going to be a very close game between two teams that we could very well see in the College Football Playoff. Alabama is slightly better in my projections, but the margins in this game will be razor-thin. I'll take the points with Mizzou at home here, as they should be able to do enough offensively to keep this game within a field goal.
