Alabama Crimson Tide vs Oklahoma Sooners Prediction - CFP First Round
Updated July 9, 2026
With the final 2025–26 College Football Playoff field set, all eyes now turn to the opening-round game between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Oklahoma Sooners. It’s a rematch of their November 15 regular-season game that ended 23–21 in favor of Oklahoma. The Tide are slight favorites on the road in Norman. Can Alabama get revenge on Oklahoma and advance to the next round? Here, I break this game down and give you my Alabama vs Oklahoma prediction to kick off the CFP.
Pick: Oklahoma Sooners Moneyline
Confidence: ★★★★☆
Matchup: | Alabama Crimson Tide @ Oklahoma Sooners |
Date & Time: | Friday, December 19, 2025, 8:00 p.m. ET |
Venue: | Gaylord Family - Oklahoma Memorial Stadium, Norman, OK |
Broadcast: | ABC |
Odds: | Alabama –1.5 |
Alabama is led by Ty Simpson, who has logged 3,268 passing yards, 26 touchdown passes, and 5 interceptions. His ability to push the ball downfield and connect with his receiving corps remains the primary offensive weapon for the Crimson Tide. But Simpson completed under half of his passes against Georgia in the SEC title game and will need to step up here.
John Mateer is the starting quarterback for Oklahoma. Mateer is capable of making plays with his arm and his legs. He only threw for 138 yards against Alabama in their first meeting this season, but he also had an important rushing touchdown to help the Sooners win that contest.
Score Projection: Oklahoma 20 – Alabama 17
Win Probability: Oklahoma 55%, Alabama 45%
Alabama is a slight favorite going into this game, but I don't think the Tide will roll into the second round. Oklahoma's defense is elite and should be able to put the clamps on Simpson and the rest of Alabama's weapons at home. I'll take the Sooners to win on the moneyline in what should be a defensive battle in Norman.
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