Arkansas and Tennessee will meet in SEC play on Saturday afternoon in Knoxville. The Vols are looking to remain a one-loss team for the season with a win in this contest and they are double-digit favorites as they look to do that. Before kickoff from SEC country, continue reading for my Arkansas vs Tennessee prediction on Saturday.
Our Arkansas vs Tennessee Pick
- Pick: Tennessee -9.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Arkansas Razorbacks vs Tennessee Volunteers
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 11, 2025, 4:15 PM ET
- Venue: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN
- Broadcast: SEC Network
Arkansas vs Tennessee Odds
Betting Odds | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|
Arkansas | +9.5 | +320 | Over 67.5 |
Tennessee | -9.5 | -425 | Under 67.5 |
Key Storylines
- Coaching Change at Arkansas: Arkansas has parted ways with head coach Sam Pittman, appointing Bobby Petrino as interim head coach. This change comes after a disappointing 56-13 loss to Notre Dame and Petrino will aim to rejuvenate the team in his return to the top spot in the program.
- High-Powered Tennessee Offense: Tennessee has one of the most potent offenses in the nation, averaging 51 points per game. Quarterback Joey Aguilar leads the charge with 1,459 passing yards and 13 touchdowns this season.
- Defensive Challenges: Arkansas's defense has struggled, ranking 117th nationally and allowing over 425 yards per game. Tennessee's offense will look to exploit their shortcomings, and the Volunteers certainly have the quality of offense that will allow them to do just that.
Quarterback Play
- Arkansas: Quarterback Taylen Green has been a dual-threat for the Razorbacks, accumulating nearly 1,400 passing yards and 441 rushing yards with 14 total touchdowns this season.
- Tennessee: Joey Aguilar has been efficient and explosive, with 1,459 passing yards and 13 touchdowns to lead Tennessee's high-scoring offense.
Betting Trends
- Tennessee: Tennessee is 3-2 against the spread so far this season. They have gone over the total in all five of their games to start the year.
- Arkansas: Arkansas is 1-4 against the spread in its last five games. The over is 4-1 in those five games.
- Head-to-Head: Tennessee is 13-7 all-time against Arkansas. But the Razorbacks have won four games in a row over Tennessee and five of their last six meetings.
Arkansas vs Tennessee Model Projection
- Score Projection: Tennessee 41 – Arkansas 28
- Win Probability: Tennessee 82%, Arkansas 18%
Final Thoughts
With Arkansas undergoing a coaching change and facing defensive issues, Tennessee enters this matchup as a significant favorite. The Volunteers' high-powered offense, led by quarterback Joey Aguilar, is poised to exploit Arkansas's defensive weaknesses. While the Razorbacks' offense, spearheaded by Taylen Green, has shown promise, my projections show that betting Tennessee is the right move here.
Jay Sanin
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
Affiliate Disclosure
ATS.io uses affiliate links. If you sign up through a link on this page, we may earn a commission at no additional cost to you. Rankings are based on hands-on testing and published criteria, and affiliate relationships do not determine placement.
