Colorado State Rams vs New Mexico Lobos Prediction - 11/15/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The New Mexico Lobos are heavy favorites as they host the Colorado State Rams this Saturday at University Stadium in Albuquerque. With a 6‑3 record, the Lobos are in strong position in the Mountain West. The Rams are 2‑7 and are playing for pride during the closing stages of a rough season. Before this game kicks off from New Mexico, continue reading to get my Colorado State vs New Mexico prediction in the Mountain West.
New Mexico is expected to be firmly in control of this contest. Coming off a bye week, the Lobos will look to build on a thrilling 40–35 win over UNLV. The Lobos have won three games in a row and are just a game back of the top two in the Mountain West and a trip to the MWC title game. Colorado State is 2-7 and has gone through coaching and quarterback changes so far this year. They will try to play spoiler in this contest.
The Rams' major weakness on defense is on the ground. They’re allowing 193 rushing yards per game, one of the worst averages in the FBS. That should be a big help for New Mexico, whose offense is balanced and capable of carving out yards with both run and pass. If the Lobos can dominate time of possession and limit turnovers, they’ll likely pull away in the second half of this game.
Score Projection: New Mexico 37, Colorado State 20
Win Probability: New Mexico 65%, Colorado State 35%
All signs point to New Mexico controlling this game. They have the talent, home-field advantage, and statistical advantages to dominate Colorado State. The Rams' offense has not shown enough consistency to keep pace with the Lobos, and the CSU defense has been vulnerable to chunk plays. I'm going to lay the points with New Mexico here, as they should get to 4-2 in Mountain West play.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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