FIU vs Missouri State Pick & Prediction - 10/29/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The FIU Panthers will visit the Missouri State Bears on Wednesday night in a Conference USA matchup in college football. Missouri State is in its first season as an FBS football program and they are off to a respectable 4-3 start. They will try to stay above the .500 mark both overall and in conference play with a win in this contest. Before the action begins from Springfield, continue reading to get my FIU vs Missouri State prediction.
Missouri State enters this game on a positive note, having earned a 24-17 overtime victory over the New Mexico State Aggies last week. That win meant back-to-back wins over FBS opponents for the Bears for the first time in their history. FIU has been inconsistent and recently suffered a 45-26 home loss to Kennesaw State. The Panthers will try to bounce back from that result after an idle week last week.
This is the first-ever meeting between these two programs, so there is no direct head-to-head history to lean on here. Bettors should instead focus on the recent form of these two teams. The advantage there belongs to Missouri State as they look for their third win in a row and to improve to 3-1 in Conference USA in their first season in the conference.
FIU quarterback Keyone Jenkins has thrown for 1,255 yards with four touchdowns and four interceptions. He threw for nearly 300 yards in his last game against Kennesaw State but his numbers were inflated somewhat by the Panthers trailing for so much of that game.
Missouri State quarterback Jacob Clark has thrown for 1,478 passing yards, 11 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. Clark returned from injury and tied the school's career passing touchdown mark (47). Missouri State’s passing game has more rhythm and proven production. But FIU's running game could offset the advantage Missouri State has through the air.
Score Projection: Missouri State 30 – FIU 21
Win Probability: Missouri State 60%, FIU 40%
FIU has an experience edge in FBS football overall. But Missouri State is playing better football right now and they should continue to do so at home in this contest. This might be the biggest game in the history of the Missouri State football program at the FBS level and what crowd support they do get should be loud. I'll lay the points with the Bears here, as they should get their third win in a row and improve to 3-1 in CUSA.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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