Michigan State vs Indiana Pick & Prediction - 10/18/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
Michigan State and Indiana will play in the Big Ten on Saturday afternoon in Bloomington. Indiana is coming off the biggest win in the history of their program over the Oregon Ducks and will try to build on that in their homecoming game here. Before this game begins, you can continue reading to get my Michigan State vs Indiana prediction for this contest.
Market | Odds |
|---|---|
Spread | Indiana –27.5 |
Total | Over/Under 48.5 |
Indiana has quickly become one of the most talked-about stories in college football. After a fast start and a road win over Oregon, the Hoosiers now have their highest-ever AP ranking at No. 3. The program’s rapid ascent has resulted in a long-term commitment to head coach Curt Cignetti. Cignetti recently landed an eight-year contract extension with the Hoosiers. Indiana’s balance on offense and stifling defense have left very few flaws for their opponents to exploit.
The 2025 season has been frustratingly inconsistent for Michigan State. The Spartans have dropped three straight games after a 3-0 start, including a blowout loss to UCLA in their last game. Their conference record is 0-3 and they are not expected to get their first Big Ten win of the season in this game.
This game is Indiana's homecoming, which should only add more positive energy into the equation in Bloomington. A full stadium for the best Indiana team of all-time means high expectations this week and the Hoosiers will have to avoid getting too full of themselves to win the way they are supposed to against Sparty.
Michigan State’s signal-caller is Aiden Chiles. He is a junior who has completed 61.3% of his passes for 1,019 yards with nine touchdowns and three interceptions. He’s battled injuries and hasn’t always looked sharp under pressure. Indiana’s defense will test him all afternoon.
Fernando Mendoza is the starting quarterback for the Hoosiers. He has thrown for 1,423 yards, 17 touchdowns, and two interceptions. Mendoza has worked his way into the short list of Heisman Trophy candidates and another big game here would keep him in that conversation.
Score Projection: Indiana 42 – Michigan State 10
Win Probability: Indiana 95%, Michigan State 5%
All signs point to a blowout in this contest. Indiana is more talented, better coached, and playing at home. Michigan State will try to shock the world, but it is hard to see them competing with the Hoosiers on Saturday. I will lay the points with IU as they should remain in the top three in the rankings with a blowout victory.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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