Michigan Wolverines vs Texas Longhorns Citrus Bowl Prediction - 12/31/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
Wednesday will feature a Citrus Bowl showdown in college football between the Michigan Wolverines and the Texas Longhorns. Both teams finished the regular season with identical 9-3 records, setting the stage for an interesting postseason contest at Camping World Stadium in Orlando. Michigan comes into this game with a coaching change on the horizon, while Texas looks to prove they belonged in the College Football Playoff. Below, I make my Michigan vs Texas prediction before kickoff.
Pick: | Over 48.5 |
Confidence: | 2/5 |
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The Citrus Bowl is going to be an interesting one this year. Texas enters the game as a favorite after finishing 9-3 and arguing that they deserved inclusion in the playoff field. Their resume includes wins over ranked opponents like Oklahoma and Texas A&M, and they have consistently performed well against strong teams during the SEC season. But opt-outs could cause a problem for the Longhorns on defense, as several of their most frequent contributors on that side of the ball are set to miss this game.
Michigan’s offseason has been turbulent. Following the dismissal of head coach Sherrone Moore due to a policy violation and the subsequent coaching hire of Utah's Kyle Whittingham, the Wolverines are dealing with multiple opt-outs and injuries. Michigan is looking at as many as 12-15 key contributors unavailable for this game. That volatility has injected uncertainty into Michigan’s Citrus Bowl and could have a drastic impact on the way they play this game.
The quarterback matchup is a compelling element in this game and one that isn't impacted by opt-outs. Texas’ Arch Manning has had a strong season, throwing for 2,942 yards with 24 touchdowns and seven interceptions with eight rushing scores. That production positions him as a reliable leader of the Texas offense despite some early-season struggles.
Michigan’s Bryce Underwood is a true freshman who completed 61.1% of his passes for 2,229 yards, nine touchdowns, and six interceptions. He also has 323 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns. Underwood’s dual-threat ability makes Michigan threatening at times on offense and he will try to take advantage of the absences on defense for the the Longhorns.
Score Projection: Texas 28 – Michigan 24
Win Probability: Texas 64%, Michigan 36%
Texas should have a slight edge in the Citrus Bowl given all of the issues surrounding the Michigan program at this point. But I like the over more than I like the point spread in this contest. Texas' defense should be in disarray due to all of the absences on their roster going into this contest, which will help Michigan do just enough to push this game over the total.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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