Mississippi State vs Arkansas Pick & Prediction - 11/1/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The Mississippi State Bulldogs (4‑4, 0‑4 SEC) will go up against the Arkansas Razorbacks (2‑6, 0‑4 SEC) in SEC play on Saturday afternoon. Both teams are searching for their conference win of the season in this game and one of them is guaranteed to get it. Which team will improve to 1-4 in the SEC for the season? Continue reading to get my Mississippi State vs Arkansas prediction before this contest kicks off.
Arkansas is desperate to get off the schneid in conference play. Their dual‑threat quarterback Taylen Green has thrown for 2,178 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. He has rushed for 600 yards with five rushing touchdowns. But all of that offensive production has not led to wins in conference play for the Razorbacks.
Mississippi State is relying on quarterback Blake Shapen at quarterback. Shapen has 1,906 passing yards this season and receiver Brenen Thompson is his top weapon with 609 receiving yards. The Bulldogs nearly beat the Texas Longhorns last week, but fell apart down the stretch in that game and ended up losing in overtime.
Taylen Green’s ability to extend plays and beat you with his legs is a major advantage for Arkansas. Against a Bulldog secondary that has shown vulnerability to explosive plays and late‑game fatigue, he could be a matchup nightmare in this contest.
Blake Shapen threw for 381 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions against Texas. But the pass protection around Shapen left plenty to be desired late in that game and that ultimately cost the Bulldogs their upset bid at home.
Score Projection: Arkansas 33 – Mississippi State 30
Win Probability: Arkansas 56%, Mississippi State 44%
If there was a way for both of these teams to lose in this contest, I would probably bet on that to happen, as both teams have struggled so much in SEC play this year. Instead, I will take the under in this contest, as both of these teams should have their ups and downs offensively that will lead to this one landing short of the total.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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