Missouri State Bears vs Arkansas State Red Wolves Pick - 12/18/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
As college football bowl season rolls on, the Xbox Bowl will feature the Missouri State Bears taking on the Arkansas State Red Wolves on Thursday night. Both teams enter this matchup having gone 5-3 in their respective conferences and looking to finish strong with a bowl game victory. Missouri State got to bowl season in its first year of FBS eligibility with a 7-5 record. Arkansas State is 6-6 and will try to get a win to end their recent losing streak. Before kickoff from Texas, my Missouri State vs Arkansas State prediction can be found right here.
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The Xbox Bowl is a historic moment for Missouri State, as it is the first postseason game for the Bears at the FBS level. The Bears exceeded expectations to earn a 7-5 record, going 5-3 in Conference USA to punch its ticket to bowl season. But the Bears dropped their final two regular-season games and will need to bounce back to win their first bowl game in school history.
Arkansas State enters its third straight bowl appearance and carries the experience advantage in postseason play. The Red Wolves needed a road win against App State in their final regular-season game in order to get to a bowl game. They got just that, beating the Mountaineers 30-29 in that must-win contest.
Missouri State’s offense has been led by quarterback Jacob Clark, who has thrown for nearly 2,900 yards with 24 touchdown passes. His ability to move the ball through the air has been key to the Bears’ offensive success, though he enters this game with 11 interceptions and needs to be more careful with the ball to help his team win.
For the Red Wolves, Jaylen Raynor provides an experienced presence under center. He completed around two-thirds of his passes for more than 3,000 yards and 16 touchdowns this season. He also had more than 400 yards and seven touchdowns with his legs. Raynor’s comfort in Arkansas State’s system and his experience in big games should help the Red Wolves’ prospects in this bowl. But Raynor also threw 11 picks this season and has to take care of the football.
Score Projection: Missouri State 27 – Arkansas State 30
Win Probability: Missouri State 46%, Arkansas State 54%
I'm leaning toward Arkansas State in Thursday night's Xbox Bowl. The Red Wolves have an experience edge going into this game and they played better football down the stretch when they needed wins to get to a bowl game. It would be nice to see Missouri State get a win in their first bowl game, but I think the Red Wolves will get the job done.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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