Northern Illinois vs Toledo Pick & Prediction - 11/5/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The Northern Illinois Huskies and Toledo Rockets will do battle in the MAC on Wednesday night. Toledo is a heavy favorite at home against a Northern Illinois team that has struggled so far this season. Will the Rockets hold serve at home to move above the .500 mark for the season? Find out what I think below as I make my Northern Illinois vs Toledo prediction for this contest.
Toledo’s defense has been elite this season. They allow 4.0 yards per play, a top-tier national figure nationally. Opponents are converting just 30.6% of third downs against them. Northern Illinois ranks 123rd in third-down conversion rate at just 33.3%. That could be problematic for the Huskies as they could struggle to keep the chains moving.
Northern Illinois showed signs of life last week with a home win that snapped a six-game skid. Chavon Wright posted a career-high 166 rushing yards in that 21-7 win over Ball State. But Toledo’s run defense ranks among the nation’s best, which threatens to snuff out the Huskies' running game once again.
This game marks the final time Northern Illinois and Toledo meet as foes in the MAC before Northern Illinois joins the Mountain West. Toledo leads the all-time match-ups 35-17 and has won the last three meetings. In their last head-to-head, Toledo defeated Northern Illinois 13-6 in October of 2024.
Veteran quarterback Tucker Gleason remains the centerpiece of the Toledo offense. He has 1,721 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, and five interceptions for the season. Northern Illinois' passing game has been highly inconsistent. NIU ranks 133rd in yards per play and 134th in scoring at just 13.4 points per game. The passing attack is led by Josh Holst. Holst has 602 passing yards, four touchdowns, and three picks on the year.
Score Projection: Toledo 28 – Northern Illinois 10
Win Probability: Toledo 88%, Northern Illinois 12%
Toledo should cruise in this matchup at the Glass Bowl. Their defense has performed at a very high level at home this year, especially against lower-tier MAC opponents. That should continue in this game against a Northern Illinois team that has had trouble moving the ball through the air. I'll go with the Rockets to win and cover the spread as a home favorite.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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