Oregon Ducks vs Texas Tech Red Raiders Orange Bowl Prediction & Odds - 1/1/2026
Updated July 9, 2026
The Oregon Ducks and Texas Tech Red Raiders will meet in the quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff at the Orange Bowl on New Year's Day. Oregon cruised in the opening round of the tournament at home and will head across the country to face a well-rested Texas Tech team that had a first-round bye. Here, I break down this New Year's Day bowl matchup and give you my Oregon vs Texas Tech prediction from the Orange Bowl.
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The Oregon Ducks put a quick end to the chances of a Cinderella story for the James Madison Dukes in this year's College Football Playoff. The Ducks outscored the Dukes 34-6 in the first half of that game and were never really challenged by the 12-seed in the CFP. Oregon will face a much tougher test in this matchup and the Ducks will use their experience in big games in the Big Ten to try and overcome the Red Raiders for a spot in the semifinals.
Texas Tech got a first-round bye in this year's CFP by virtue of winning the Big 12 and finishing fourth in the pre-playoff rankings. The Red Raiders held their final four opponents to single digits on the scoreboard to earn their spot in the top four. That streak included two blowout wins over a BYU team that was a contender for an at-large bid. A defensive showing even close to that level from the Red Raiders could send them to the Peach Bowl and the final four.
Dante Moore is the quarterback for the Ducks. Moore threw for over 300 yards in his first career CFP start against James Madison. He threw two interceptions, which is something he will need to avoid doing in this game against a much better defensive team in Texas Tech.
The Red Raiders are led by quarterback Behren Morton. Morton completed 201 of his 300 pass attempts this season with 22 touchdown passes and just 4 interceptions. Morton's ability to take care of the ball has helped Texas Tech win with plenty of room left for error and the Texas Tech quarterback will have to protect the ball against an elite team in this contest.
Score Projection: Oregon 31, Texas Tech 27
Win Probability: Oregon 56%, Texas Tech 44%
I recommend laying the points with the Oregon Ducks in the Orange Bowl. Oregon played a top-20 schedule in terms of difficulty in FBS this season, while Texas Tech ranked outside of the top-50. The Ducks are battle-tested and should pass another big test to get to the semifinals while covering the spread as a field goal favorite.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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