Penn State vs Iowa Pick & Prediction - 10/18/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
Penn State and Iowa will play in the Big Ten on Saturday night. The Nittany Lions have made headlines by firing head coach James Franklin after a three-game losing streak. They will try to turn things around starting this week in a difficult place to play. Here, you will find my breakdown of this game, including my Penn State vs Iowa prediction.
Penn State’s new quarterback, Ethan Grunkemeyer, is untested at this level. His performance under duress will be a key factor, especially against Iowa’s defense, which is good at collapsing pockets and forcing mistakes. The Nittany Lions will need a strong rushing attack from Kaytron Allen to alleviate pressure on Allar's replacement.
Iowa quarterback Mark Gronowski has thrown for over 700 yards this season. He is dealing with a knee issue but is expected to play without any limitations. His ability to make plays off-script will matter against a solid Penn State defense. The key for Gronowski in this game will be avoiding turnovers that could turn into short fields for Penn State's new-look offense.
Score Projection: Iowa 21 – Penn State 14
Win Probability: Iowa 57%, Penn State 43%
Iowa should be able to win this game at home against a Penn State team that is a complete disaster at this point in time. But my top pick for this game is the under. Iowa will be content to play field position in this game and force Penn State's replacement at quarterback to beat them by sustaining long drives. He will not be able to and the under should cash in this matchup in the Big Ten.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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