San Diego State Aztecs vs New Mexico Lobos Prediction - 11/28/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The stage is set for a huge Mountain West Conference matchup when the San Diego State Aztecs travel to face the New Mexico Lobos on Friday. A win would be huge for the hopes for either team as they look to make it to the MWC championship game. Who will come away with the win in Albuquerque here? Continue reading to get my San Diego State vs New Mexico prediction for this important game.
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San Diego State's signal-caller is Jayden Denegal. He’s completed 58.6% of his passes for 1,649 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. San Diego State’s offense has produced 25.4 points per game this year and will need to produce to beat New mexico here.
New Mexico's quarterback is Jack Layne. In their most recent win over Air Force, Layne threw for 105 yards and had a rushing touchdown. His passing totals haven't been all that impressive, but the Lobos have held three of their last four opponents under 20 points and Layne's job will be to just manage the game above all else.
Score Projection: San Diego State 20 – New Mexico 17
Win Probability: San Diego State 55%, New Mexico 45%
This is going to be a close game and one that will help decide where the seasons of both teams go. As far as the outcome of this game is concerned, I will lay the point and a half with San Diego State. The Aztecs should shut down the run and make New Mexico one-dimensional on offense. This game will be low-scoring and the Aztecs will punch their ticket to the Mountain West title game.
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