Texas vs Mississippi State Pick & Prediction - 10/25/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The Texas Longhorns (5-2, 2-1 SEC) will face the Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-3, 0-3 SEC) on Saturday afternoon at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville. Texas enters the matchup as a 6.5-point favorite. The Longhorns escaped with a 16-13 overtime victory against Kentucky last week. The Longhorns aim to build momentum as they continue their SEC campaign. Here, I break down this matchup in the SEC and bring you my Texas vs Mississippi State prediction for this contest.
Texas' Arch Manning has shown flashes of brilliance but has also faced challenges in leading the Texas offense. He will try to prove himself again in this matchup. Mississippi State's Blake Shapen has thrown for 1,525 yards with nine touchdowns and five interceptions. Both quarterbacks will need to manage the game effectively and avoid turnovers to give their teams the best chance to win.
Score Projection: Texas 27 – Mississippi State 23
Win Probability: Texas 79.7%, Mississippi State 20.3%
Texas should be able to get another road win in the SEC this week. But I do think that we are in for a close game between the Longhorns and Bulldogs. Arch Manning will continue to struggle to find sustained offensive success and Mississippi State will cover the number on their home turf on Saturday.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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