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COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Duquesne is the side that offers the cleaner betting value because Washington State has not shown the offense needed to justify an extreme favorite role. The Cougars are averaging just 8.5 points per game and 204.0 yards per game, with only 3.6 yards per play. That is a thin offensive foundation for a team expected to separate by a huge margin. Even if Washington State controls the game, its current production suggests a slower path to margin than the market is assuming. The under also deserves attention because neither offense has established a strong scoring base. Washington State has gone under in both games, and Duquesne’s season totals have also been held down by its own limited offense. The biggest reason the total can miss is that Washington State’s defense has been vulnerable, but Duquesne has not shown enough passing efficiency or explosive production to fully cash in. That keeps the game in a range where a lower-scoring Cougars win is the more likely outcome.
Washington State comes in after an uneven start, with the offense producing 207 passing yards and 201 rushing yards across two games, but only 17 total points. The defense has been the bigger problem, allowing 29.0 points per game and 6.4 yards per play. That combination leaves the Cougars with a strong talent edge over Duquesne, but not necessarily the kind of efficiency profile that supports a massive number. Duquesne’s first two games have been ugly on the scoreboard, yet the box score also shows an offense that has not been explosive enough to force fast-scoring games. The Dukes are averaging 6.5 points per game, 175.5 yards per game, and 3.5 yards per play. Their defense has been hit hard at 52.0 points allowed per game and 526.5 yards allowed per game, so the ceiling for Washington State is real. Even so, the current offensive numbers for the Cougars suggest the margin could come in below the market’s expectation.
Washington State should win, but the better betting angle is Duquesne plus the points and a lower-scoring game. The Cougars have not been efficient enough on offense to justify a dominant margin, and Duquesne’s weak offense points toward a game that stays below the total. My projected final score is Washington State 28, Duquesne 13, which supports Duquesne to cover and the under.
