COLLEGE FOOTBALL
The best angle in this game is the total, not the side. The market is dealing different numbers, with totals posted from 61.5 up to 63.5, which tells you there is not a clean consensus point yet. That matters because the sharpest total is usually where the number settles, and in this range the current best price is still a shade richer than the median. Utah State’s offense averaged 30.92 points per game and 409.5 yards per game last season, while Idaho State averaged 33.0 points and 459.4 yards. Those are strong offensive figures, but both teams also showed enough defensive resistance to keep games from becoming runaway shootouts, with Utah State allowing 28.69 points per game and Idaho State allowing 27.25.
Idaho State finished 2025 at 6-6 and closed with a strong four-game run, while its offense was built around a productive passing game that averaged 303.75 yards per contest. Quarterback Jordan Cooke finished last season with a 63 percent completion rate, seven touchdowns and two interceptions over the Bengals’ late winning stretch, and wideout Chedon James gives them a proven target on the outside. Idaho State also posted 45.57 percent on third down, a strong marker for an FCS team stepping up a level in competition. Utah State, meanwhile, returns to a new-look Pac-12 setting after a 2025 season in which it went 6-7 and averaged 247.0 passing yards and 162.5 rushing yards per game. The Aggies were balanced enough to score in bunches, but they also allowed 440.1 yards per game, so the defensive side is not fully trustworthy against an Idaho State offense that can throw the ball efficiently.
Utah State should be the better team and is likely to control enough of the game to win, but Idaho State has enough returning passing production to keep the score moving without letting the Aggies separate fully. My projected final is Utah State 33, Idaho State 28, which lands near 61 total points and supports an under bet at 63.5. That projection still fits a Utah State win, but it does not justify the market’s higher total number, especially with the available price sitting at the least favorable end of the range.
