COLLEGE FOOTBALL
The total is the clearest value because the spread is already very aggressive and the number does not need much help to get out of range if Old Dominion controls the game. The Monarchs finished 2025 with 36.2 points per game and only 14.6 points allowed, plus 7.8 yards per play on offense and 4.5 allowed on defense. Norfolk State’s 2025 profile was far softer, with 20.92 points per game, 362.0 total yards per game, and 35.58 points allowed. That combination creates a strong mismatch, but it does not automatically mean a runaway track meet. A one-sided nonconference game often settles into shorter drives, more second-half running, and fewer high-leverage snaps. Old Dominion also held opponents to 314.2 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play last season, which supports a lower-scoring script once the Monarchs establish control. The total is sitting in the low-to-mid 50s across books, and the better number is on the under if you can still find 55.5. That gives enough cushion against the market while still fitting the likely pace and game flow.
Old Dominion brings the stronger offensive and defensive resume into this matchup. The Monarchs averaged 498.4 total yards per game in 2025, with 247.4 passing yards and 251.2 rushing yards per game, and they paired that with a defense that allowed just 314.2 yards per game. Their efficiency numbers also stand out: 7.8 yards per play on offense and 4.5 allowed. That kind of balance usually travels well into a game where the talent gap is wide. Norfolk State’s recent data shows a much thinner margin for error. In 2025, the Spartans posted 20.92 points per game, 362.0 total yards per game, and 5.9 yards per play, while allowing 35.58 points per game and 424.7 yards per game. The offense had some production through the air at 218.17 passing yards per game, but the defense struggled to get off the field and surrendered 244.0 passing yards and 180.7 rushing yards per game. That mix makes it hard to project sustained scoring against a higher-level opponent unless the game turns chaotic.
Old Dominion should control this game from the start and win comfortably, but the better betting angle is the under rather than laying the huge spread. The Monarchs’ 2025 efficiency numbers, combined with Norfolk State’s defensive issues and modest scoring output, point to a game that can slow down once Old Dominion builds a lead. My projected final score is Old Dominion 38, Norfolk State 10, which supports Under 55.5 as the best value play.
