NFL
San Francisco owns the clearer statistical advantage in the data set. The 49ers scored 25.7 points per game and gained 351.4 yards per game, while Las Vegas posted only 14.2 points and 245.2 yards per game. That gap matters even in a preseason setting because it shows which roster had more reliable offensive production and more room to win on efficiency rather than volume. The defensive numbers also lean away from the Raiders laying points. Las Vegas allowed 25.4 points per game and 317.8 yards per game, while San Francisco allowed 21.8 points and 340.2 yards per game. The 49ers also finished with the better ATS record, 11-7-1 compared with Las Vegas at 7-10-0, which supports the idea that the market may be giving the home team too much credit. The total is fairly tight, but the stronger angle is the underdog plus points because the line is asking the Raiders to win by more than a field goal against a more efficient opponent.
San Francisco arrives with the stronger offensive profile in every major category provided. The 49ers averaged 25.7 points per game, 351.4 total yards, 244.5 passing yards, and 106.9 rushing yards. Their turnover margin was minus-6, but that still sits close to Las Vegas, which finished at minus-7. On the other side, the Raiders were much less effective, averaging 14.2 points and 245.2 yards per game, with only 167.7 passing yards and 77.5 rushing yards. Defensively, Las Vegas was not strong enough to justify a premium spread. The Raiders allowed 25.4 points per game and 317.8 yards per game, with 4.4 yards per play allowed. San Francisco allowed 21.8 points per game and 340.2 yards per game, though the 49ers were the more stable betting side overall with an 11-7-1 ATS record. The total of 37.5 reflects a cautious market number, but the most useful angle from the team data is still San Francisco keeping this close enough to cover the points.
San Francisco looks like the better side to take with the points in a game that projects to stay within one score. The 49ers posted stronger offensive production, a better ATS record, and a more credible case to keep pace if this turns into a lower-volume preseason game. Las Vegas is the home favorite, but its offensive output and defensive efficiency were both weaker, which makes the current spread feel a bit inflated. Final score projection: San Francisco 49ers 20, Las Vegas Raiders 17.
