Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction - 9/25/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies will conclude their three-game series on Thursday at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies locked up a bye past the Wild Card round of the postseason with their blowout win over the Marlins on Wednesday. They will look to build on that momentum in this contest. Before the fun begins from Philly, continue reading to get my Marlins vs Phillies prediction for Thursday night.
Janson Junk (6-3, 4.27 ERA) takes the mound for the Marlins tonight. While his 4.27 ERA is respectable, he has allowed at least three earned runs in nine of his past 10 starts. His strikeout rate is relatively low, and he faces a Phillies lineup that ranks second in scoring at home with 5.5 runs per game. That could be troublesome for Miami in this matchup.
Walker Buehler (9-7, 5.13 ERA) starts for the Phillies tonight. Despite a higher ERA, Buehler has been more effective at home, with a 3.23 FIP at home compared to 6.1 FIP on the road. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is better at home, and he faces a Marlins offense that has struggled against right-handed pitching this season.
Player | Prop |
|---|---|
Kyle Schwarber | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
Walker Buehler | Under 5.5 Strikeouts |
Janson Junk | Under 15.5 Outs Recorded |
I think that we are going to see plenty of offensive fireworks in this contest from Citizens Bank Park on Thursday night. Both teams are facing starting pitchers that have not been consistently shutting down their opponents. My best bet for this game is for it to go over the total of nine runs, as we should see a third straight game where these teams combine to hit double-digits on the scoreboard.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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