The New York Mets and Chicago Cubs will face off at Wrigley Field on Thursday night. Chicago defeated the Mets last night and moved closer to sealing the top National League Wild Card spot. The Mets are barely holding onto the last Wild Card position and will try to get a win here to earn some breathing room. Here, I break down this important contest and bring you my Mets vs Cubs prediction for tonight.
Our Mets vs Cubs Pick
- Pick: Cubs Moneyline
- Confidence: 4/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs
- Date & Time: Thursday, September 25, 2025, 7:40 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Nolan McLean (NYM) vs Shota Imanaga (CHC)
- Stadium: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
- Broadcast: MLB Network
Key Storylines
- Pitching Matchup: Nolan McLean, the Mets' rookie sensation, has an impressive 1.27 ERA over 42.2 innings. This will be his first appearance at Wrigley Field, a venue known for its hitter-friendly conditions. It will be fascinating to see how the rookie answers the challenge tonight. Shota Imanaga of the Cubs has been solid with a 3.37 ERA and a 9-7 record. His experience at home could give the Cubs an edge, as could his overall talent.
- Key Players: Juan Soto continues to lead the Mets' offense with 43 home runs and 105 RBI. Francisco Álvarez has also been a bright spot, with both of those Mets hitters going deep in last night's loss to Chicago. Michael Busch is a key contributor for the Cubs, leading the team with 31 home runs on the season.
- Recent Team Streaks: The Cubs snapped a five-game losing streak with a decisive 10-3 win over the Mets on Wednesday. The Mets have lost 12 of their last 17 games, putting their wild-card hopes in jeopardy. New York enters the day a game up on the Reds and Diamondbacks for the final NL Wild Card spot.
Best Player Props
Player | Prop |
|---|
Michael Busch (CHC) | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
Juan Soto (NYM) | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Mets lead the season series against the Cubs 3-2 heading into tonight's game.
- This is the final regular-season meeting between the Mets and Cubs in 2025. If the Mets win, they win the season series. If the Cubs win, they will split their six games 3-3.
- The Mets are 32-45 on the road for the year. The Cubs are 47-30 at home.
Mets vs Cubs Model Projection
- Score Projection: Mets 3 – Cubs 5
- Win Probability: Mets 42.6%, Cubs 57.4%
Final Thoughts
Nolan McLean is an exciting young pitcher for the Mets. But the rest of the team around McLean is struggling right now. Neither of these teams are playing particularly good baseball. But Chicago is at home and has been the least bad of late. I'll take the Cubs to win the rubber match of this series and to cause more stress for Mets fans as they hope their team can hold onto their Wild Card spot through this weekend.
Jay Sanin
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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