Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction - 9/25/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The Tampa Bay Rays will return to Oriole Park at Camden Yards to close out their three-game series against the Baltimore Orioles on Thursday. Both teams are already eliminated from postseason contention. But they will look to close their season series against one another on a high note. Before these AL East rivals do battle in Baltimore, continue reading to get my Rays vs Orioles prediction.
Drew Rasmussen enters with an impressive 10–5 record and a 2.80 ERA for the Rays this season. Baltimore's Cade Povich carries a 3–8 record and an ERA of 5.06. The gap in consistency is stark between these pitchers. Rasmussen has given his club a fighting chance nearly every time out, while Baltimore has struggled to trust Povich given his track record.
Yandy Díaz has been on a tear of late and remains one of Tampa's most dangerous offensive weapons. Brandon Lowe and Jake Mangum both launched home runs in Wednesday’s win and will be influential in this game as well. Colton Cowser has delivered a home run and clutch hits in recent action for the Orioles. Jordan Westburg’s bat has been reliable from the lower part of the order. However, Baltimore’s offense has been inconsistent overall this month.
These teams have split the first two games of this series. The Rays have won two of their last three games entering Thursday, while the Orioles have dropped four of their last five games.
Player | Stat | Pick |
|---|---|---|
Yandy Díaz | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
Brandon Lowe | Home Runs | Over 0.5 |
Cade Povich | Strikeouts | Under 4.5 |
Score Projection: Tampa Bay 5 – Baltimore 3
Win Probability: Tampa Bay 58%, Baltimore 42%
The Tampa Bay Rays should be able to beat the Orioles on the road to win this game and their season series against Baltimore. Tampa has the starting pitching advantage in a big way going into this contest with Rasmussen on the mound. That should be too much for the O's to overcome here. I'm taking Tampa to win this game on the moneyline.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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