Jimmy Crute vs Ivan Erslan Prediction - 9/27/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
Jimmy Crute and Ivan Erslan will face off in the co-main event of Saturday's UFC Fight Night card from Australia. These unranked light heavyweights will try to make a statement before the main event between Carlos Ulberg and Dominick Reyes in the same division. Both fighters will try to grab a win and move into the top 15. Before the fighters get in the octagon, continue reading to get my Jimmy Crute vs Ivan Erslan prediction.
Jimmy Crute | Ivan Erslan | |
|---|---|---|
Age | 29 | 33 |
Height | 6′2″ | 6′2″ |
Reach | 74″ | 72.5″ |
Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
Record | 13-4-2 | 14-5-0 |
Jimmy Crute finally got back into the win column in his last fight. His matchup against Marcin Prachnio ended in a first-round armbar victory in July. That win snapped a five-fight winless streak that included three losses and two draws. It also should provide confidence and evidence that his grappling remains sharp. He will benefit from home crowd support in Perth in this fight, where he is searching for a second consecutive victory.
Ivan Erslan has also struggled of late. He has dropped his last two fights to Navajo Stirling and Ion Cutelaba. Both of those losses came via decision and Erslan struggled to consistently land volume strikes or sustain offense deep into those fights. In the Stirling fight, Erslan was out-landed heavily and taken down multiple times, calling into question his ability to neutralize the offense of his opponents.
Crute is the more active striker going into this fight. He lands roughly 4.17 significant strikes per minute, while Erslan lands about 2.50 per minute. Crute connects on approximately 52% of his significant strikes, compared to Erslan’s 44%. Crute is also more aggressive in terms of takedown attempts and submission attempts and will try to use that to his advantage.
I think that Jimmy Crute will win this fight over Ivan Erslan by decision. Crute is the more aggressive fighter and should throw more strikes while searching for opportunities to change levels and get takedowns. I think he will dictate the terms of this matchup and Erslan will remain on the back foot for the majority of the fight. Erslan will lose a third straight fight by decision, while Crute will get a second win in a row as he puts his five-fight winless run further into his rearview mirror.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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