Michael Johnson vs Alexander Hernandez UFC 324 Prediction - 1/24/2026
Updated July 9, 2026
The upcoming UFC 324 matchup between Michael Johnson and Alexander Hernandez on Saturday features two fighters that have built winning streaks in the lightweight division. The bout, part of the prelims for the UFC 324 card from the T‑Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, is close to a pick 'em fight. Who will get the win during the early prelims? I'll attempt to answer that question below, as I make my Michael Johnson vs Alexander Hernandez prediction.
Pick: Alexander Hernandez to win
Confidence: ★★☆☆☆
Michael Johnson | Alexander Hernandez | |
|---|---|---|
Age | 39 | 33 |
Height | 5’10” | 5’9” |
Reach | 73.5” | 72.0” |
Record | 25‑19‑0 | 18‑8‑0 |
Michael Johnson is a longtime UFC competitor and has is known for taking part in high‑level striking exchanges and a willingness to engage at range. Johnson’s boxing skills and fluid movement have earned him three straight wins and a reputation as one of the most dangerous strikers in the division when he connects cleanly. Despite being 39, Johnson has found a rhythm recently, showing he still has the tools to compete at a high level. However, age and a long history of tough fights may work against him as he looks to slow the pace and impose his will on Hernandez.
Alexander Hernandez enters this contest with momentum on his side. At 33, he has won four straight fights, including two straight stoppages by strikes. Hernandez’s combination of aggressive kickboxing, solid takedown defense, and wrestling ability gives him multiple pathways to victory. His most recent finishes came against Diego Ferreira and Chase Hooper, both of whom he dispatched within the first two rounds of those fights. Hernandez is the younger, fresher fighter and appears to be still improving his craft. A fifth straight win here would likely get him off the early prelims in the next card he fights on.
Johnson will likely try to keep the fight standing and use his jab and movement to manage distance, while Hernandez may look to cut down angles, mix strikes, and potentially press for takedowns if opportunities arise. The pace could be brisk early, with Hernandez perhaps finding ways to get inside Johnson’s range and land combinations. The conditioning factor might favor Hernandez as well, given his age advantage and recent activity compared to Johnson.
This could end up being the most competitive fight on the UFC 324 card and a split decision one way or the other wouldn't surprise me in the least bit. I don't feel particularly confident betting either fighter here, given how close I make this fight, a sentiment that oddsmakers clearly agree with. But I lean slightly toward Hernandez, as his relative youth and energy should help him get through the tough moments in this fight in what should be a good bout from T-Mobile Arena.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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