Nikita Krylov vs Modestas Bukauskas UFC 324 Prediction - 1/24/2026
Updated July 9, 2026
The light heavyweight matchup between Nikita Krylov and Modestas Bukauskas on Saturday's UFC 324 card features two fighters going in different directions battling at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Krylov enters this bout as a veteran looking to put an end to a losing streak, while Bukauskas is building momentum and hoping to extend an impressive winning streak. Here, I've broken down this matchup and you will find my Nikita Krylov vs Modestas Bukauskas prediction below.
Pick: Bukauskas to Win
Confidence: ★★★☆☆
Statistic | Nikita Krylov | Modestas Bukauskas |
|---|---|---|
Age | 33 | 31 |
Reach | 77.5" | 78" |
Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
Record | 30-11-0 | 19-6-0 |
Nikita Krylov has been a fixture in the light heavyweight division for years and is known for his ability to finish fights. With a professional record that includes 12 knockout and 16 submission victories, Krylov has the tools to end fights on the feet or on the ground, which makes him a dangerous opponent even during a tough run of recent losses. In his last two outings, he suffered early knockout defeats, which may raise questions about his durability in striking exchanges.
Modestas Bukauskas has carved out an impressive stretch of wins inside the UFC, with a four-fight win streak that includes finishes against competitors like Paul Craig and a split decision over Ion Cutelaba. Bukauskas’ style centers on disciplined striking, utilizing a strong jab, and switch stance fluidity to keep opponents off balance. He has evolved into a cleaner, more technical striker with the ability to land hard shots, capable of scoring stoppages if his opponent walks into his range without caution.
In this matchup, the contrasting strengths produce an engaging stylistic clash. Krylov’s path to success likely runs through his grappling and volume striking early, forcing close-range exchanges that prevent Bukauskas from finding a rhythm in his stand-up attacks. Winning the clinch and gaining position on the mat would disrupt Bukauskas’ distance striking and open up chances for Krylov’s superior submission arsenal.
However, Bukauskas’ distance control and growing fight IQ cannot be disregarded. By keeping the fight upright and using his technical precision, he can exploit Krylov’s defensive vulnerabilities in striking exchanges and land crisp combinations that might slow Krylov’s forward pressure. The Lithuanian’s momentum as a rising contender could give him the confidence needed to defeat a veteran opponent.
My recommendation in the betting markets for this matchup is to take Modestas Bukauskas to get a win on the moneyline on Saturday night. Krylov is an undeniably talented fighter, but he has struggled to stay out of trouble against potent strikers of late and that should continue against a fighter in Bakauskas who is very good at striking without putting himself in harm's way. Expect a fifth straight win for the Lithuanian, who will hand Krylov a third defeat in a row.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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